Friday, December 29, 2006

24 hours of protest at Exxon Mobil (Esso) HQ

What? 24 hours of protest at Exxon (Esso) HQ


When? 5.00 pm Thursday 5th April to 5.00 pm Good Friday, April 6th
With Focal Point At
2.00 pm Friday

Could you Elaborate? Climate Victims' Vigil, Music, Street Theatre, Workshops, Speakers to be announced…

Where? ExxonMobil (trading under the name "Esso" in the UK) Headquarters is South of London, about 20-30 minutes walk from Leatherhead Railway station (trains from Waterloo). It is North of Leatherhead, just inside the M25. For location see the map here, or for a more close-up map see here.

Why on that day? April 5th is the day of the release of the "Climate Impacts" section of the new IPCC report. Rumours abound that EXXON funded spin will yet again be shot into the media spotlight. Help make a statement, corporate funded climate spin is not acceptable: "Climate Disinformation Is Genocide".

More details as they become available : http://www.campaigncc.org/

To spread the word about this action there is a PDF available.

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EU ETS Resources (2 of 2): Reports

The EU ETS has promise but its effective implementation faces the usual challenge of surmounting powerful corporate special interests. If these interests are not overcome the EU ETS will live up to the criticisms of its opponents and simply be a way of permitting pollution and subsidising those who currently pollute most. The following reports look into the changes that are needed to make the scheme more equitable and effective.





IPPR 18 Dec 2006: "Trading UP: Reforming the EU ETS"
CAN 12 Nov 2006 "Improving the EU ETS for the Planet"
The Carbon Trust "Carbon Confusion: The EU ETS and the Future"
The Carbon Trust 1 June 2006 "Allocation and Competitiveness: Improving the EU ETS"
UK Treasury "Emissions Trading: UK Govornment Vision"
Centre for European Policy Studies "Review of the EU ETS: Priorities for Reform"

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EU ETS Resources (1 of 2): Websites and Blogs

Some of the best websites and blogs about the EU ETS. A relatively small project in global terms the ETS is, however, widely expected to expand, not just incrementally with further industried being brought in but also substantially through linkage to other international schemes, many of which are still in early development.







Five Good EU ETS Websites:
Stay up to date with Two Good Blogs

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Thursday, December 28, 2006

An Inconvenient Truth: Entire Film on Youtube

Sorry this film has been taken down.

However:

The speech on which the film is based is available online from here.
Al Gore's 21sth March '07 testimony to congress can be watched here.

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Video of the Week: Climate Change; Dispair and Empowerment

Communicating climate change: not the problem. Achieving acceptance on a personal rather than rational level is what we are fighting for, and futher, this aceptance must be twined with a sense of empowerment.

This is not an interesting aside for activists, it is a key point to understand. I have much to learn in this area and believe many of those who I have met in the past year have a similar need for advancing the way that they sell the issues.

This is a preocupation of mine at the moment, this video has a few tips...

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Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Report(s) of the Week: 1. Feeling the Heat 2. Climate Change--The Costs of Inaction

Two related reports came out towards the end of 2006. Both reports focus on the impacts of climate change, one specifically the effects due o changes in the hydrological regieme and one more broadly due to the many patterns of climate alteration predicted.


"Feeling the Heat" is a report by Tearfund that focuses on access to water supplies.

Executive Summary

The world is now locked on course to become ever warmer. And one of the most devastating impacts of this human-induced climate change is on the world’s water supply.

Thankfully, lives are not at risk when water shortages hit the UK. But the predictions for our planet are bleak:

• By 2100, the earth could be between 1.4°C and 5.8°C warmer than in 1990.
• The Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research says that
extreme drought, which currently affects about 2% of the planet, will affect over
10% within 50 years.

Already floods, drought and extreme weather events are becoming all too familiar in our warmer world, even in wealthy countries:

• July this year was the hottest UK month since records began in 1960, with one
day hitting an all-time July high of 36.5°C.
• In 2003, a heatwave spanning 20 days in France caused more than 14,000
deaths.
• Much of central USA has been experiencing exceptionally dry conditions for
over a year.

But nowhere is this changing climate having a greater impact than in the world’s
poorest countries. As floods, drought and storms increase, climate change will have a potentially catastrophic impact on water supply, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. Poor people – like 80% of Malawi’s population who farm small plots– are reliant on rain for their harvests, and are least able to adapt to climate change.

By exacerbating existing water stresses, climate change impacts many other areas of human development such as health and even industry.

Already, there are an estimated 25 million ‘environmental refugees’ – more than half the number of political refugees. Experts such as ecologist Norman Myers suggest this figure could soar to 200 million in less than 50 years. Unseen and uncounted, millions are already on the move in search of greater water security. In some countries, the exodus began years ago:

• Unpredictable seasons and unreliable crop yields are boosting the number of
Mexicans risking their lives each year to try to reach the US. Many die trying to
cross the Arizona desert.
• One in five Brazilians born in the arid north-east of the country move to another
region within Brazil. Up to 75% of land in the north-east, which is plagued by
periodic drought, is at risk of becoming desert.
• In three provinces in China, people have been forced to leave home due to the
spread of the Gobi desert. The desert is growing at a rate of 4,000 square miles
a year.
  • In Nigeria, 1,350 square miles are converted to desert each year. Farmers and
  • herdsmen are forced to move to the cities. World governments must therefore take urgent action next month at the UN climate change conference COP12 in Nairobi (6-17 November).

    They must:

    • produce a timetable for agreeing the next phase of the Kyoto Protocol, and
    focus on setting tougher, binding targets to cut their carbon emissions
    • provide urgent funding to help poor countries adapt to climate change
    • make water resources an urgent priority for adaptation efforts and
    prevent likely rises in the number of climate change refugees
    • address the dramatic effects of increasing water scarcity on other key
    development sectors such as health

    The world’s poorest people have been coping with unreliable water supplies for
    decades. And many have devised techniques to fend off the worst effects of an unpredictable climate. These include:

    • Rainwater harvesting: a cost-effective means of providing water for poor people
    without piped supplies.
    • Contour bunding: low mounds of earth along field contours to stop rainwater
    run-off.
    • Check dams: small dams across watercourses to slow rainwater flow.
    • Planting drought-resistant crops, such as sorghum and millet.

    Although very effective, such measures are not enough. Poor countries also need
    national strategies for managing water resources, which meet human needs and
    protect vital ecosystems.

    Access to fresh clean water is critical if poor communities are to survive climate
    change and lift themselves out of poverty – but two in five people in sub-Saharan
    Africa still do not have this access. In regions such as Africa, water scarcity is already jeopardising efforts to reach the 2015 Millennium Development Goals for child mortality and for water and sanitation. Poor governance and climate change
    exacerbate an already critical situation.

    It costs money to adapt to climate change and its impact on water supply and
    ecosystems. It is wealthy nations such as the UK which should be doing more to foot the bill. Developed nations have contributed most to global warming and yet it is poor countries which are bearing the brunt. To date, wealthy countries have been painfully slow in committing funds to help developing countries adapt:

    • World Bank estimates suggest it would cost between $10 and $40 billion every
    year to ‘climate-proof’ development work in poor countries.
    • The UK government has committed just £10 million over three years.
    • Rich nations have promised $450 million a year so far – but delivered far less.

    Agreed UN funds to help poor countries adapt are not yet fully operational. There will be millions more thirsty, hungry and ill people living in high-risk areas of the world by the end of the century. It makes sense –politically, economically and morally – for governments to act with urgency now.


    "Climate Change--Costs of Inaction" is a report by Tuffts University for Greenpeace groups within the United Kingdom.

    This report demonstrates that the cost of allowing global temperatures to increase by two degrees or more above pre-industrial levels will run into trillions of dollars, while the environmental and social costs will be incalculable. It was produced by GDAE researchers Frank Ackerman and Liz Stanton for The Big Ask, Friends of the Earth’s climate campaign in the UK. The report, which brings together the latest scientific and economic thinking on climate change, highlights the enormous costs that would result if governments fail to act to keep temperature increases below two degrees.

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    Paul Baer on The Stern Review

    Paul Baer of EcoEquity has just written an article on the stern review and it's treatment of the
    2 degree Centigrade stabilisation target. When I listened to Nicholas Stern talk abut his report at LSE he made it clear that he did not suggest either a 450ppm or 550ppm target but that stabilisation within that range would make economic sense.

    This is where several people started to pull out hair, take in breath and pray for some sanity. Aubrey Meyer in particular was keen to point out the enormous difference between the two targets. I found myself with quite a few questions, foremost of which was, I doubt we can cope with 550ppm but what in the hell chance does Africa stand? And how is the economics of a generally poor continent like Africa accounted for in Stern's economic models? This preamble was just a clarification that Stern -- for reasons of 'realism'-- decided not to make recommendations other than a stupendously broad statement in favour of mitigation. Baer makes the point that the 2 degree target is implicitly abandoned as this is where stern did his modelling work and correspondingly, this is where the media get there figures from.

    Here i state my ignorance of the reports details, i have read the full summary and listened to a two hour presentation but haven't read the somewhat more arduous 600 page report.

    I think, however, that many of the points which Paul makes are well founded and as always enjoy the clarity of his reasoning. An excerpt is bellow and full article can be found here.
    There is a great deal to be said about the importance of the Stern Review as a benchmark not just in the debate about climate policy, but also as a contributor to a broader debate about sustainability, economic growth, and global justice, and as an example of the role that economic argument plays in the science/policy domain. I hope in the coming months to take up many of these considerations, here and in other fora. But for now, I want to focus quite specifically on the key climate policy recommendations, and particularly on the implicit claim that the 2ºC target should be disregarded. And I will do so by highlighting the ways in which the Review actually incorporates catastrophic risks and their “valuation” - the “worth of an ice sheet,” as I suggest in the title. What I hope to show is that those of us who (prior to the Stern Review) thought that such risks justified the 2ºC threshold, have good reasons to reject Stern's conclusion.

    Again, Stern does not explicitly dismiss the 2ºC threshold; but he endorses 450 ppm CO2-e as the lower limit on reasonable stabilization targets, in spite of it having at best even odds of staying below 2ºC and a roughly 20% chance of exceeding 3ºC. Thus, put simply, either:

    1) Stern is wrong that stabilization targets lower than 450 ppm CO2-equivalent are not economically justified;

    2) Stern is wrong that cost-benefit analysis should determine whether we try to stay below the 2ºC threshold; or

    3) Stern is right, and we should quit arguing for lower stabilization targets that in fact have a high likelihood of staying below the 2ºC threshold.

    As should be clear from my subtitle, the Stern Review in no way persuades me to abandon the goal of keeping below a 2ºC warming. Nor, I suspect, will most of those who also favor such an objective be persuaded by Stern to give up their “preference” for a more stringent policy. On the contrary, I suggest that in fact that Stern himself supplies many of the crucial premises in support of more stringent targets, and that it is only by making a series of necessarily controversial assumptions that he is able to conclude that accepting a 20% to 50% risk of exceeding 3ºC is economically warranted - and, implicitly, politically warranted.

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    Love the Countryside?

     
    Living in the Cairngorms since the age of two, the first and most curious of two children, the areas unique beauty has not escaped my eyes. Whilst walking the hills or valley fields my constant companion is a digital camera. I enjoy photography, the landscape of the Cairngorms lends itself readily to the camera. But whilst many will enjoy these scenes I would argue that the real value in the Cairngorms lies on a smaller scale. This is where I part ways with many ‘lovers of wild places’.

    The Cairngorms has the highest density of rare species of any similar sized area in the UK. These 1,300 species represent the areas true character. Many characteristic species can be appreciate on the Macro scale: Scots pine, Broom, Snow bunting an numerous heather species; but others need a Macro lens, huge diversity and number of very small species that set the Cairngorms apart as an area of peculiar richness and biodiversity.

    I love the ecosystem with its myriad parts containing the complexity, environmental significance and beauty. To put it bluntly; aesthetics do not constitute my primary interest in the Cairngorms. To use an analogy, i have a dog, i would be concerned if his organs where damaged by illness: this anxiety would not be even slightly remedied later on by the work of a skillful taxidermist. I see value in life.

    Life in the Cairngorms, as around the country, and in fact the globe is currently under the most profound threat since the extinction of the dinosaurs. Accurate modelling is not possible but the best science we have suggests species losses of between 40-70% depending on the level of climate change and the assumptions used. Being interviewed for The Independent Prof. Des Thompson of Scottish Natural Heritage likens the plight of Scotland’s moorland birds to a train crash:

    “The birds are being buffeted about: the snow isn’t there where it used to be, the insects aren’t emerging as expected, the whole hillside’s not looking the way it used to. It might seem tranquil enough to us, but the birds are experiencing this huge dislocation in their lives. Nothing will be the same as it was.”

    With this perspective in mind you can imagine what I think about opposition to wind farms by “lovers of the countryside”. Britain’s largest environmental organisations understand the order of priorities and have been remarkably supportive of wind power. The RSPB, where some conflict may be expected has—to its credit—been very pragmatic, objecting to sighting of grave concern and helping to improve siting.

    There has been increasingly vocal opposition to wind farms and associated works throughout the UK. Mainly by people who “don’t want to see the countryside spoiled”. Such an anthropocentric view of the countryside is just the sort of ignorant and harm full attitude that really does threaten our lands real beauty.

    When a wind power project is proposed near your home, will you protect your most treasured land and support wind?

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    Wednesday, December 20, 2006

    Top Climate stories via the Pew Centre for Global Climate Change

    Top Climate stories via the Pew Centre for Global Climate Change newsletter.

    TOP STORIES FROM 2006
     
    Momentum toward action on climate change in the U.S. grew to an all-time high
    during 2006 and we anticipate continued progress in 2007. Below we highlight
    some of the major events of the past year.


    PROGRESS TOWARD U.S. FEDERAL POLICY

    ---Elections
    The 2006 elections have significantly improved the prospects of reasonable
    climate policy
    in the United States. Read the Pew Center's analysis of how the
    elections will impact U.S. climate policy.
     
    ---Congressional Proposals
    During the 109th Congress (2005-2006), 103 bills, resolutions, and amendments
    specifically addressing global climate change and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
    were introduced.
     
    STATES TAKE ACTION

    ---California Passes Landmark Legislation
    California, the world's twelfth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, passes
    landmark legislation (AB 32) to cap all greenhouse gas emissions from major
    industries at 1990 levels by 2020.
     
    INTERNATIONAL DIALOGUE APPROACHES PIVOTAL TIME

    ---COP 12
    Climate negotiators from around the world gathered in November for the United
    Nations Climate Change Conference in Nairobi, Kenya. Read about Pew's activities
    and its summary of COP 12:
     
    SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE OF HUMAN ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE GROWS

    ---Read a concise summary of the latest strong evidence that greenhouse gases
    released by human activities are the main cause of contemporary global warming. 

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    Tuesday, December 19, 2006

    Report of the Week: Asian Aspirations for Climate Regime Beyond 2012 (IGES)


    IGES OFFICES

    Some months back I had a report of the week by the Institute for Global Environmental Stratagies (IGES). This report was the result of phase 1 of a wide ranging consultation that was carried out throughout Asia. A review of this first report can be found here. The second phase has just been completed and the results are summarised in a new report entitled "Asperations for Climate Regime Beyond 2012". Whereas the previous report went into great detail about the emissions per country and the basic concerns, this report is more focused on designing a general system for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

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    Saturday, December 16, 2006

    Website of the Week:Impacts of climate change in India.

     Website of the week: Indian environmental magazine "Down to Earth".

    This website has a guide to the impacts of climate change in India (just click next at the base of the linked article) and a review of what was and was not achieved at Nairobi.

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    Friday, December 15, 2006

    Why should i use less energy?

    In what seems to be my own unique and surely irritating style i`m going to make a couple of points about why I think we should aim to save energy and how we should justify these attempts. I have noticed that I have on several occasions made observations along the lines of...I think that's a bad idea, oh yeah, and here's some tips on how you do it that way.

    In this case the argument that concerns me--although it has thus far been used to great effect-- is that we should save energy or use renewables because these practices save us money or protect us from price hikes in commodity markets. The weakest argument of all has to be that of using renewables because they are cheaper than oil/gas at current high price. This strategy is weak because, oil/gas prices are predicted to drop and in fact have started to do so, it is also week because it leaves externalities out of the equation which is a huge missed opportunity and using this as a fallback argument only would seem to me to be a bad move.

    After all Nicholas stern called climate change the economic systems greatest ever externality,
    to give it no value in an argument dosent make sense to me even though leaving it out may make short term tactics easier.

    The argument for energy efficiency to save money is not as weak because whatever the circumstances gains will always be made.

    The other argument commonly made, that can be sustained no matter what current commodity prices do is that with renewables you have certainty. In fact all renewable energy sources are getting cheaper with time while long term fossil fuel prices are erratic but with trends only going one way.

    The central point remains however, climate change is a crisis, we are looking at best-case scenarios of 2-3 degrees which corresponds to 30-60% species loss, hundreds of millions of refugees and huge economic harm. Surely this is an issues that cannot be approached tangentially!

    Business leaders, OK, do your thing try to make an economic case for green renovation and innovation but please, do not be afraid to speak the name of the real problem! Climate change has to be understood as the preeminent challenge of our time and it calls for more rapid and more entire revolution of our energy system than economics alone would dictate.

    Having made my thoughts clear on the strategy of implementing clean energy let me provide an entirely different perspective, that of a man who assures us that smart businesses will, once educated start to carry out business practices that will incidentally do a great many things of benefit to society. If you like blue sky thinkers who also do details then you will know Amory Lovins.

    So here is the tip from Amory, if you want to argue the economic case for more efficient buildings then try to do it based on the impacts the buildings have on the companies staff.

    "Due to the current way in which the building trade works, the builders are rewarded based on the sufficiency of the building, not the efficiency. If it is built in time and at the quoted cost then they aren't going to loose out even if... the cost of running the building is extremely high or people occupying the building are unhappy and unproductive. This leads to projects where "The engineering looks cheep to the owner, indeed the engineer's one time fee is 1/1000'th the long term payroll of employees, whose productivity depends significantly on the comfort produced by the engineers handiwork. So by skimping on design, the owner gets costlier equipment, higher energy costs, and a less competitive and comfortable building; the tenants get lower productivity and higher rent and operating costs."

    This is really interesting work by Amory, noting the discrepancy between the 130 dollars gross per square foot expended on staff annually and 1.53 dollars per square foot expended on electricity annually. Energy saving methods such as day lighting, passive ventilation, correctly orientating building can often be very well justified on these grounds.

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    Video of the week: Sir David Attenborough Documentary "Are we changing planet earth?"

    Cheers to Dave Sag for highlighting this. Great video, I heard a BBC Radio One dj talking about watching this and deciding that it is time to go green and play his part in saving this incredible planet!





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    Thursday, December 14, 2006

    Climate Blog Highlights: Monsoon Rains, Carbon Credits, Budget Breakdown, Reforestation...

    David T the Low Carbon Kid has a breakdown of the environmental measures announced in Gordon Browns' pre-budjet report. This is a better summary than i have seen up to now so check it out if you are interested in seeing just how green the Labour government is.

    There is an interesting article about forest preservation and reforestation in South Africa here, via the CDM blog.

    There is a post about the impending refugee crisis due to climate change over at the Climate Progress. There is also a post about the link between extreme rainfall during India's monsoon season and climate change.

    Dave Sag over at the Carbon Footprints blog has several interesting posts recently, first off there is apostabout a recent feasibility study looking into carbon credits (AKA carbon rationing, AKA domestic tradeable quotas, AKA all sorts of things). This study (pdf) as carried out at the request of environment minister David Miliband who also has a blog. If you are interested in this idea you may also be interested in another report on the topic by the Tyndall Centre. Dave also highlights many other interesting stories some of which will receive blog postings in there own right on my blog later.

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    Climate Change in Scotland?

    According to the Met Office this Autumn has been the warmest ever in Scotland and the rest of the UK. This continues the trend for the first months of the year, making a record year very likely.

    "The provisional mean temperature this year was 12.6 °C. The previous highest figure for the equivalent period was 11.8 °C, recorded in 1730 and 1731."

    There has also been heavy precipitation. Due to the mild weather this has almost entirely been constituted of rain rather than snow. Scotland usually has it's heaviest precipitation in the winter but as snow, the fact that the heaviest precipitation has been rain this year has lead to flooding and dangerously high river levels and widespread flooding.

    Weather historian Philip Eden said:

    "Although this month began with a week of cold and frosty weather, temperatures have once again risen well above the seasonal average during the last three weeks. Weather forecasters say it would take a prolonged cold spell through December to prevent 2006 being the warmest year on record in Britain."
    Perth has been flooded, despite newly built flood defences, meanwhile Loch Lomand is at it's level ever recorded and they aren't sure exactly what level it is at now, as...the measuring station is flooded.

    This is all as expected according to the UK climate impacts program but about 50 years early! As mentioned in a previous post, wetter in the Cairngorms where I live doesn't mean a kind winter for wildlife it means a damp, exposed winter without the snow which protects native flora and is a much needed resource for highland birds.

    Clearly a single mild autumn cannot be conclusively attributed to climate change but this is not a single isolated autumn, this is part of a trend, both a local trend over the last few years and a global trend which sees this as yet another abnormally warm year.

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    Tuesday, December 12, 2006

    Blair's Record on Climate Change: No Laughing Matter

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    Monday, December 11, 2006

    Review: Green Futures by Forum for the Future

    There are a great variety of magazines and journals covering so called Green issues. Which of these reading materials are of interest is a very personal matter; are you more interested in lifestyle changes, environmental policy in your country, international progress on climate mitigation, the science of climate change, broader sustainability issues or perhaps a purely financial focus.

    In my case, whilst I find lifestyle mags to be of some interest such works represent a niche market, albeit a niche that I very much hope expands, I am therefore more interested in progress both business and public sector that effects the wider population.

    One of the best magazines that I have read on this aspect of action; progressive business and govornment policy, is "Green Futures".

    Topics covored in recent issues range from wind and tidal power development and expansion to microgeneration payback times and trends internationally. The coverage of low impact transport systems and the role of urban planning is also of great interest to me. To quote Amory Lovins roughly 'Travel is a symptom of being in the wrong place'. In all but recreational examples this is a symptom that has a range of treatments; work, school, home and shopping should not each be a car journey away from each other.

    One of the main reasons that I enjoy this magazine is probably the same as the reason that--sat typing this--i have just turned off the podcast i was listening to. We all want to stay informed but information without inspiration and without empowerment is depressing not activating. Forum for the future was set up "On a promise of solutions and partnerships, rather than conflicts and blame".

    So if you are interested in a smart and creative business approach to climate change along with the latest development is Green policy then I highly recommend going over to the Forum for the Future website, checking out a few articles and buying that subscription...or maybe a Christmas present for someone else?

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    Don't Give up on 2 Degrees: Tory Qaulity of Life Challenge

    The EU has a stated goal of keeping climate change at bellow a global average of 2 Degrees Celsius. The Conservative Party Quality of Life group seems to be trying to tie down this aspiration as policy.

    There is some agreement amongst scientists and environmentalists that beyond this the rate of positive feed backs increases dramatically and the risks of wholesale climatic reconfiguration increase to become a very real threat.

    Even within the EU however, there is not a realistic corresponding co2 concentration. 550pm has been used for some time but current science suggest that to maintain temperature changes bellow 2 Degrees Celsius a concentration target of 400-450ppm CO2e is required to achieve this with 90% certainty.

    Many do not see this as feasible. CO2e may already be 430ppm looking at the basket of ghg's.

    The Conservative party in the UK have decided that we need to work hard at achieving this goal. If we don't put in the effort then we won't know what is possible. We do not need an incrementally greater focus on climate change as just another challenge. We need to start. We need to start in the same manner that we started to fight the Germans. No mistake, this is a war, and the human stakes, the biological and the economic stakes are that high.

    Fortunately, this is a war that can ultimately be won. Once we have decarbonised the economy we will have a cleaner world. Power will be distributed physically and metaphorically. Housing will be warmer, fuel poverty a thing of the past. Wars for fossil fuels will be a distant memory. We truly are at a crossroads: down one side continued conflict for dwindling oil and natural gas reserves, reliance on dirty coal and higher energy prices; down the other, renewable energy, a decarbonised transport sector, forest stewardship and just compensation, better health for millions. That sounds like true quality of life.

    The conservatives state in there report that the UK governments goal of 60% cuts by 2050 is insufficient (a fair statement) and that cuts of 80% are required. Lets just make this clear, as David Milliband (Labour, Minister for the Environment)...'By 2050 practically the whole world economy besides agriculture will have to be decarbonised'. The basic goal is rapid decarbonisation as quickly and manageable as can be achieved.

    In conclusion the report states that:


    • When it comes to managing the risk of serious climate instability, the politics must fit the science and not the other way round. The Quality of Life policy group believes that it is wrong to give up on the chance to limit global temperature increase to 2°C versus pre-industrial levels. Our understanding of the science tells us that the appropriate long term stabilisation target range for CO2 atmospheric concentration is 400-450ppm CO2-equivalent, rather than the 450-550ppm, cited by the Stern report.


    • Consequently we believe that the UK goal of a 60% reduction in emissions by 2050 is likely to be proved inadequate. Our policy work is therefore directed at how we can reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050, without sacrificing quality of life or competitiveness.


    • Long term aspirations are likely to be academic without a shift in the short term momentum to reduce emissions. An ambitious long term goal will therefore struggle for credibility without a statutory emissions reduction target for 2025, supported by a road map of shorter term targets. These targets should be proposed by an Independent Agency and supported by a vote in the House of Commons. A medium term target of this type is important for shaping the key investment decisions that will be taken over the next 15 years in replacing our energy generation infrastructure. Those decisions will shape our ability to meet the long term goal.

    Aubrey Meyer of the Global Commons Institute had this to say about the report:


    On the topic of “Getting the science right”


    In one sense - getting to grips with the ‘science’ better - the paper is
    very useful. It correctly takes Sir Nicholas Stern to task over 450-550
    ppmv CO2 e. It points out that this concentration value of GHG in the
    atmosphere is too high if we are to avoid a more than a two degrees
    Celsius overall global temperature rise. The paper poses 400-450 ppmv as
    the limit of what's needed. This is more realistic.

    On the topic of “Getting the framework right”


    In another sense – the plain logic of global time-dependent limits to
    consumption - this group is fragments and all at sea. It seems to me
    that despite the input of Mark Lynas, Peter Ainsworth and others, they
    still aren’t doing the arithmetic. The section called “Getting the
    framework right” [see below] has a good title, and some not unhelpful
    exhortative remarks but no methodological content. In this area all we
    get is a string of right-on sounding buzz words with no real value due
    to their contradictory usage.

    The “critically right” framework turns out to be words: - a “cross-party
    kick-start” to a “throttle up or down” at “political” will . . . with
    which we can speed up or slow down to manage the risks both locally and
    globally to accommodate the two opposing trend tendencies of doing too
    much too soon [fat chance] versus too little too late . . . without a
    global emissions framework being mentioned once.

    The sad fact seems to be this: - John Gummer, whose group is, was one of
    the earliest and sharpest C&C advocates. Now, for reasons un-stated
    accompanied by what can now better be described as publicly almost
    foaming at the mouth, John’s anti-C&C views are damaging the chances for
    competence in this ‘Quality of Life Group’.

    With time running out, the “Right-Framework” part of the report avoids
    the discipline of time-dependency in emissions management. This, if
    anything, will only confuse and damage the cross-party consensus the
    Conservative Party want to lead.

    Its dead simple or we're dead, if C&C does not lead the cross-party
    consensus, there will be no consensus.
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      Sunday, December 10, 2006

      Report of the Week: Adapt or Bust (Lloyds of London)



      This week's report of the week is "Adapt or Bust" by Lloyds of London.

      This comes via the Marketing and Strategy innovation blog.

      It makes for some interesting reading, its conclusions:

      • We don't know exactly what impact climate change will have. But we do know that it presents society and the economy with an increasing level of uncertainty as it seeks to manage its risk.

      • We believe that it is time for the insurance industry to take a more leading role in understanding and managing the impact of climate change.

      • This means that the industry can no longer treat climate change as some peripheral workstream, simply to tick the regulatory and compliance box, or to support its public relations strategy.

      • Instead, understanding and responding to it must become "business as usual" for insurers and those they work with. Failure to take climate change into account will put companies at risk from future legal actions from their own shareholders, their investors and clients.

      • Climate change must inform underwriting strategy -- from the pricing of risk to the wording of policies.

      • It must guide and counsel business strategy -- including business development and planning.

      • And it must lie at the heart of a new impetus to engage with the wider world through meaningful, tangible partnerships to mitigate risk -- bringing corporate and social responsibility plans to life.

      • The insurance industry must now seize the opportunity to make a difference, not just to the future of our own industry, but to the future of society.

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      Saturday, December 09, 2006

      Website of the Week: Development and Adaptation Days



      This weeks website of the week is the Development and Adaptation days section of the International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED) website.

      The IIED is based in London and do a great deal of important work focused on "Mainstreaming Adaptation". Clearly a fair degree of climate change is already locked in and whilst we may not be justified in assuming complete failure by nation states in curbing there emissions it is abudently clear that there has been a period of political domancy that is going to hit the poorest hard. Adaptation stratagies are therefore a very real requirement for the comming century, nowhere more so than on the marginal grazing lands of Africa's Sahel.

      Infact, as mentioned previously the possibility for conflict driven by climate change is only to real. Jeffrey Sachs has interesting things to say about Dar Fur on this account.


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      Video of the Week: Economic, Social and Political Impacts and Adaptation Costs.



      Video of the week from the China-U.S. Climate Change Forum:
      What's at Risk? Economic, Social and Political Impacts and Adaptation Costs.

      This panel of ecologists, economists, and insurers will examine the economic and social risks of climate change, the vast differences in the vulnerability of different nations and social groups to those risks, and the scale of investment needed to adapt to climate change as its impacts increase. Panelists include: David Roland-Holst, University of California at Berkeley; Jianguo (Jack) Liu, Michigan State University; Gary Guzy, Marsh USA Inc.; Erda Lin, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Peter Hayes, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Nautilus Institute. The China-U.S. Climate Change Forum was organized by the Berkeley China Initiative, which is forging closer ties between U.C. Berkeley and China by bringing together key experts on important international and bilateral issues. Growing concern over climate change makes this topic an obvious choice for the first of this series of annual events. This panel will highlight the mutual vulnerability of China and the U.S. to climate change, and the indispensable role of scientific research in understanding the problem and developing solutions. The Forum is co-sponsored by Peking University's College of Environmental Sciences and UC Berkeley's Graduate School of Journalism, International and Area Studies, Institute of East Asian Studies, Center for Chinese Studies, Energy and Resources Group, and Berkeley Institute of the Environment. Financial sponsors include the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund, the Energy Foundation, and the Hewlett Foundation.

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      Communicating Climate Change


      Language, facinating isn't it? 

      I named this post communicating climate change as the links are all either directly or indirectly from the Fynmense blog which uses these words.

      Of course, the idea of simple communication being possible is interesting. If we think that modern day media is that neutral then we are beyond naive. If this where our only problem then I think we would have things licked...all we would need to do is a bit of basic education. However, although I can quite easily explain climate change, its impacts, our responsibility and our possible responses; I can rarely persuade people that there participation is required and that this is not merely a personal interest.

      If we where being honest, it is apparent that my problem is that i cannot sell conceptual products. I need to be better not at communicating but at marketing climate change. We would also admit that the news media are superb at selling ideas to there chosen demographic and that what they need to do is accept this. Climate change must be discussed as  an urgen human problem with very real and feasible human fixes the media must be prepared to constructively engage in spreading this message.

      There is a speech transcript from a UNFCCC side event at Nairobi here. There is also a detailed breakdown of the speches on the CISERO website.


      Speeches are by:

      Dr Rajendra K Pachauri assumed his current responsibilities as the head of TERI (Tata Energy Research Institute) in 1981. In April 2002, Dr Pachauri was elected Chairman of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which was established by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme in 1988.

      Pål Prestrud is the current director of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo) and vice chair of ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment). He holds a doctorate in biology from the University of Oslo, and his previous positions include division director for the Division of Science and Technology at the Research Council of Norway, research director at the Norwegian Polar Institute, and deputy director general at the Section for Polar Affairs and Cooperation with Russia, Department for International Cooperation at the Ministry of the Environment.

      Nick Nuttall is spokesperson for United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

      Jules Boykoff holds a Ph.D. in political science. His work on U.S. media coverage of global warming, which he co-authored with Maxwell Boykoff (Oxford University, Environmental Change Institute), has appeared in a variety of scholarly and popular publications. Al Gore used their research in his film and book “An Inconvenient Truth”. Boykoff teaches political science at Pacific University in the United States.

      Liisa Antilla holds a master’s degree in human geography from King’s College London. She is an independent researcher living in Seattle, Washington, USA. Some of her work on media coverage of climate change is posted at www.oneblueworld.blogspot.com.

      Alister Doyle has been Reuters Environment Correspondent since 2004. Based in Oslo, he has worked in more than 30 countries with Reuters since 1982, with postings in Paris, Brussels, London, Central and South America.

      Marc Morano joined the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee as the majority Communications Director in June 2006 after a decade and a half as a working journalist, documentary maker and national television correspondent.

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      Blog Updates: Broadening of Focus and Greater Accessibility

      The blog now has some new links so give them a go. 

      1. I am trying to give this site less of a western focus.  A great many of the articles posted in the last year are focused on the UK (well i live here) or the US (for which I have no excuse).  



      Climate change is complex and there are good reasons to focus on all areas:  Europe for its historical responsibility and green rhetoric (perhaps more?); the USA for its pre-eminence in the global economy and its enormous absoloute and per capita emissions; China for its rate of growth and its terrifying rate of coal utilitisation and development (towards ecological collapse); India for its population alone and its susceptibility to climate change; South America for its enormous biodiversity and increasing poulation. and Africa for its vulnerability to climate change whilst having almost no role in bringing this about.

      Expect the focus to become more inclusive. Some of the links at the side reflect this.

      2. I am trying to make this site more accessible.



      There are now tags on all posts making searches for related articles supremely easy. All you need to do is click on a link, say wind, and find all my related article that have content about wind power.


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      Friday, December 08, 2006

      Wind Power Makes Business Sense



      Suzlon Energy is an Indian company with international ambitions. Aiming for 25% market share in wind power by 2010.

      Short video on there ambitions...tackling climate change can be very profitable!

      Video Clip on Moneycontrol


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      Wednesday, December 06, 2006

      Two Climate Links

      I just recieved an email from Jane Marsching about a project that she is coordinating. Called "climate commons" there are an interesting range of people involved, from Comedians to Climatologists and other Creative types.

      Check out the site here. It is interactive so leave your comment.

      Another link worth checking out is the Climate Change Action mailing list/forum.

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      Support Wind Power in the UK

      Hi, I just recieved a message asking for help in supporting a windfarm application.

      Apparently, a Londoner who hollidays in Scotland has managed to build quite a campaign against a scottish windfarm. I live in scotland and have had a similar experiance with a related group based in England and pretending to represent the people.

      Anyway, if you would like to show your support for wind power please show your support:

      Locluichart Wind Farm Message of Support
      Local Newspaper Vote (bottom left hand side)
      More Info

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      REDD -- REDucing emissions from Deforestation

      I recieved the following email in the daily round of notices form the IISD's Climate-L mailing list. If you are interested in climate policy you should probably tollerate the high traffic and subscribe, there is lots of interesting info available.

      Dear climate-l readers,

      we would like to make you aware of an
      article discussing recent developments regarding the issue of reducing emission
      from deforestation (REDD). The publication also provides estimates for the
      potential market value of an international mitigation scheme and for potential
      incomes of individual countries.

      The article - entitled “Nairobi talks made progress on forest conservation for global warming emissions credits - is available at on here.

      The research paper analyses key implications of different international policy approaches for the environmental effectiveness of an agreement on REDD, as well as for its economic and political attractiveness to different stakeholders. It also addresses potential co-benefits of carbon trading solutions for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development, suggests ways to maximise synergies, and considers solutions to several unresolved negotiation issues.

      Comments are highly welcome!

      Johannes Ebeling Consultant EcoSecurities Direct +44 (0)1865 264 010 Mobile +44 (0)770 799 2110 Tel +44 (0)1865 202 635 Email johannes.ebeling@ecosecurities.com www.ecosecurities.com

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      Monday, December 04, 2006

      10'000 Sign petition at the EPA.

      Things are getting really mad over at the Environmental Protection Agency.

      The organisation setup to protect the environment, that employs people with this desire, that is being sued for not fufilling this role and that is being prevented from fullfiling this role.

      I`d hate to work there, would drive me nuts.

      Good luck to everyone there, I hope the democrats make some sort of difference to politics in Washington.


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      Audio of the Week: Economics and Politics of Climate Change



      This week's Audio of the week is on the Economics and Politics of Climate Change. The first speaker, Michael Jacobs is from the UK Council of Economic Advisors to the Treasury and outlines the issues involved expertly. Conceptual clarity, nice to hear.

      The file can be downloaded here, sometimes the connection isn't great but keep at it, its interesting stuff.

      Other speakers Paul Miller, Associate of Demos, and Sasha Blackmore,  Judicial Assistant to the Law Lords.

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      Saturday, December 02, 2006

      Eco-catastrophe: The Cairngorms (AKA: My Home)

      I live in the Cairngorms. Here is a photo from my house. I`m not to keen on the Eco-catastrophy being predicted as I hapen to love this areas wildlife. It is not ublikely that something similar will be happening where you are if you look carefully. Think global, act local. Solidarity people!  p.s the rest of the photos don't link directly to the text either, they are just from various places in the valley near where i live.



      Eco-catastrophe: The Cairngorms
      Published: 02 December 2006

      Winter is coming again to Britain's largest National Park. But life in the Cairngorms is changing with alarming speed. Rising temperatures are having dramatic effects on flora and fauna. So is this spectacular region facing its greatest eco-catastrophe since the Ice Age? Peter Marren reports
       
      You know you are in a special part of the country when you spot a herd of reindeer out on the hillside, or when a man sweeps past on his dog-sleigh. This is the Cairngorms, Britain's largest National Park. Up here in the Highlands of Scotland, the landscape is more like Greenland than Kent. The Cairngorms has more mountain birds, animals and plants than anywhere else in the country. It is at once the highest, wildest, coldest, snowiest, and some think the most dramatically beautiful part of Britain. And it is changing before our eyes.



      For most of us, global warming hasn't affected the view from our windows. We see the same trees and wild flowers. The same birds visit the nut-feeder. Even the south coast doesn't yet look like Madeira. But if you doubt whether global warming has arrived in Britain, take a winter holiday in the Cairngorms.

      For the Cairngorms are slowly, but increasingly surely, looking less and less like the Cairngorms. The area used to have our most alpine scenery, with snow-streaked mountain sides above the ancient pines and spring-green birch woods. But it has grown significantly warmer and wetter in recent years. In winter, rain is more likely than snow. Spring arrives a week earlier. The summers are slightly warmer and often a good deal drier. And autumn 2006 was virtually snowless.

      In the end it's all about snow - and the average snow cover has decreased by a third. But even that kind of statistic disguises the fact that the snow is also melting faster. Alan Stewart runs Britain's only sled-dog adventure centre, based at a traditional Highland cottage not far from the local ski slopes. "We had just three days of continuous snow last year," he says. "There was a time when I could take the dogs out over the high tops to Ben Macdui and stay there for several days. You can't do that now. The snow melts too quickly. I have to take the dogs to the Alps to race them."

      It is already too late for Alan to take visitors on sleigh rides, alpine-style. Instead, his dogs pull them along in a specially designed wheeled cart. Even that concession to the climate is getting problematical. "One minute it's cold enough, and the next it's too wet. The tracks rarely freeze up for long and soon flood with liquid mud. And on the occasions when it does snow, it's often violent and blocks the roads."

      It's much the same story on Scotland's premier ski slopes. The 2003-04 season f was a disaster for the National Park's two ski companies. Every month from November 2003 until the following September had a mean temperature above the 1961-90 average. At the Glenshee Ski Centre near Braemar, downhill skiing was restricted to a short run on artificial snow. Having lost £1m in two years, the company was forced to sell its other centre at Glencoe, and by May it had gone bankrupt.

      The larger Cairngorm Ski Centre, near Aviemore, has changed its name to Cairngorm Mountain Ltd to signify its switch from a winter attraction to an all-year one. The company has overcome a potentially fatal reliance on snow by building a controversial funicular railway conveying visitors up the mountain to Britain's highest café near the summit.

      "The past 10 years certainly haven't been as good for us as they were in the Seventies and Eighties," says Bob Kinnaird, Cairngorm Mountain's chief executive. "It's becoming self-evident that providing skiing facilities in Scotland is increasingly difficult to sustain, and that any skiing area that has not been able to diversify will always have serious problems."

      You can still get good snow for downhill skiing. Last winter was better than average at Cairngorm with a big January snowfall enabling most runs to stay open until mid-March. For a week or two there was better snow than at some alpine resorts. And a hard winter has been forecast for the coming months. But the predicted rise in the average temperature of the Cairngorms of perhaps 1.5 degrees centigrade by the mid-century will be more than enough to end any prospect of commercial skiing.

      In fact, the Cairngorms of the near future may look less like mountains and more like unusually elevated moorland. A temperature rise of one degree is enough in effect to lower the height of the high tops by 200m. A two-degree rise will permanently reduce the amount of lying snow by up to 90 per cent. If the railways are still functioning by the mid-century you might be able to travel across the Highlands in midwinter from Edinburgh to Inverness and see no snow at all.

      This is very bad news for the wildlife and scenery of the high tops; possibly the worst news since the last Ice Age. For one way or another nearly all the special species of the Cairngorms - the winter-white ptarmigan, the tundra-nesting dotterel and snow bunting, the alpine flowers and dwarf shrubs, even microbes and fungi living in the soil - depend on snow. And plenty of it.
      This might seem unlikely. On the face of it, snow is a cold, useless substance. You can't eat it, you can't grow on it, and unless you are a polar bear, you can't live in it. Snow is more or less inert. But it works the landscape in subtle ways. In the windy, arctic conditions of the Cairngorms, snow blows around. It rarely remains long in a deep, even blanket. The wind sweeps it from the frosty ridges and piles it up in hollows or against cliffs. But far from acting as a deep freeze, the settled snow is a kind of thermal blanket, protecting the ground beneath and keeping it moist and relatively warm.



      You can tell where the snow has lain even in high summer. Snow beds are marked by oases of moss and alpine plants. The lower ones are lush with blaeberry (the English bilberry), club mosses and other dwarf shrubs rooted in a thick carpet of moss. On the tops, the snow beds form crimson and green carpets of mosses and liverworts full of exquisite alpine species rarely seen in the Home Counties. They are also the home of "Britain's smallest tree", the "least willow", all of half an inch high; technically, these patches of thumbnail willows are miniature woods.

      From the mossy snowbeds high in the hills, little rills fringed with saxifrages and other alpine flowers run between the boulders to join the burns far down in the glen.
      Without the snow providing a slow steady stream of meltwater fanning out down the hillside to sustain these high headwaters, an entire alpine habitat will be lost. It is the water from melting snow that sustains plant life in the gravelly cold desert of the Cairngorms plateau.



      It is not only plants that depend on snow. Take that archetypal bird of the high tops, the snow bunting. This pretty white, black and brown-coloured bunting nests among the boulder fields near the mountain summits. To feed its chicks it needs a reliable supply of protein-rich insect food. But flying insects f can be in short supply up there in the wind and clouds. So where does it find them?

      With the help of snow, says Professor Des Thompson, principal uplands advisor to Scottish Natural Heritage and an authority on upland birds. "Snow acts as a trap for flying insects. They are blown along by the wind and deposited on the sticky wet white surface, where, of course, they are very conspicuous. You can watch the snow buntings working the snow patches, picking off the stranded flies and returning to their nests with a beak full."

      Another rich source of bird food is provided by the spring meltwater dripping from the edge of the snow.
      "As the snow retreats it triggers a big burst of life,"
      says Professor Thompson.
      "Craneflies, whose larvae feed in the soil, emerge in vast numbers, as do other flying insects like midges and beetles."
      These natural larders are frequented by dotterel, wheatear, golden plover and other hill birds which need food at this time of year to feed their broods.

      It is this synchronicity between nesting and insect emergence that has sustained the hill birds of the Cairngorms for thousands of years. But suddenly, says Professor Thompson, "the birds and their food may be going out of sync". The snow is melting earlier and faster.
      "The risk now is that the craneflies have responded by emerging earlier too, and by the time the birds are feeding their chicks the mass-emergence of insects will be over."
      The environmental fine-tuning that timed their brood to coincide with the greatest availability of food will break down.

      The ptarmigan, whose plumage turns white in the winter, faces another problem. With no snow they are as conspicuous to a passing fox or eagle as a cue ball on a snooker table.

      Professor Thompson compares the calamity that awaits the hill birds with a train crash.
      "The birds are being buffeted about: the snow isn't there where it used to be, the insects aren't emerging as expected, the whole hillside's not looking the way it used to. It might seem tranquil enough to us, but the birds are experiencing this huge dislocation in their lives. Nothing will be the same as it was."
      There is the same sense of collision further down, in the upper edges of the pine forests where black grouse and capercaillie live. Both birds are already suffering serious declines. Overgrazing, deer fences (into which birds are wont to crash) and predation by resurgent numbers of foxes have pitched populations into something close to free-fall. The last straw may be the present run of wet springs.



      According to Professor Thompson, the sequence of this train-crash may run as follows: in the increasingly wet springs, the hen bird spends more time with her chicks to keep them warm and dry. Spending longer with the brood instead of feeding means the mother loses condition. Losing condition means she is more likely to fly into a fence. Or get run over by a speeding 4x4. Or snapped up by a fox. Mother dies, the chicks starve. And there's another downward statistic in the gloomy record of the black grouse.

      There are other knock-on effects of climate change that leave wildlife worse off. One of them is the rise of blood-sucking beasties like midges, horseflies and ticks. For the first time, walkers in the Cairngorms in summer are being advised to take midge repellent with them. Milder winters and wetter springs are being blamed for the sudden clouds of midges that were formerly associated with the boggier hills of the west. And since midges also bite deer, f they are driving the animals up the hill to spend longer on the high tops where they graze on sensitive alpine vegetation.

      Ticks, which have always been present in relatively low numbers, have also increased. And they are active for longer. Stewart's sled dogs now catch ticks as late as November, whereas they used to be most bothersome in early summer. Despite their knack of finding embarrassing places to bite us, ticks are no joke. They can transmit Lyme Disease to humans. They also transmit the Louping-Ill virus to sheep and other domestic animals, as well as to grouse chicks. A bad infection of ticks can ruin the value of a grouse shoot. A scapegoat has been found in an animal that shares the same moors: the mountain hare. On some estates in the Cairngorms area there are reports of mass-shootings of mountain hare in a panicky attempt to preserve the grouse stocks. This is bad news not only for the hare. It will have knock-on effects on the golden eagle for whom this animal is an important source of food.

      If ticks, disease and wet springs were not enough, heather-moor owners also face a drastic increase in the heather beetle. This tiny blackish beastie has an insatiable appetite for heather. Its grubs chew their way through shoots and leaves, stripping the plants back to the wood, leaving bare, brownish patches up to an acre in size. Whatever used to keep the heather beetle in check is clearly failing in its useful task. There have also been plagues of moth caterpillars causing the heather to lose water and go brown. It seems to be another case of nature out of sync - bugs that, with the help of climate change, have managed to turn the tables on their predators.

      Given the threats to Cairngorm wildlife, the publication of a lavishly illustrated new book on the area is well timed. The Nature of the Cairngorms, a Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) production edited by Philip Shaw and Des Thompson, celebrates the extraordinary wealth of wildlife found in the mountains, forests and glens of the National Park. The area boasts more than 1,300 rare species, more than any other similarly sized part of Britain. They include not only wild cats, eagles, ospreys and red squirrels but long lists of beetles, moths, lichens, mosses and fungi, many of them dignified only by a Latin name.

      Indeed the full extent of the biodiversity of the Cairngorms has been uncovered relatively recently by roving bands of patient, dedicated specialists. Somehow we managed to miss a fungus the size of a horse's hoof projecting from the trunk of old aspen trees. And we thought a fungus called the devil's tooth - from its habit of sweating blood-red droplets - was very rare. In fact, it is quite common. Supposedly extinct mosses have turned up alive and well, in one case within yards of a nature reserve centre.

      How much of this glorious diversity will be sucked under by climate change is anyone's guess. About the birds of the high tops, Professor Thompson is not optimistic. He predicts the extinction of the snow bunting as a breeding species by the end of the century."In the mountains, which I like to think of as a sanctuary for wild nature, the reality may be ecological chaos and a widescale loss of species.



      When it comes to plant life, Martin Gaywood, SNH's expert on climate change, says that survival may be a matter of dynamics. Do plants have the capacity to move up the hill at the same rate as their "climate space"? No one knows. Unfortunately, they face increased competition from more aggressive plants like bracken, broom and coarse grasses which are able to move in on the warming hillsides. A worst-case scenario cited in The Nature of the Cairngorms predicts the extinction of the entire alpine flora by the end of the century - an eco-catastrophe of the sort we have not witnessed in Britain for 10,000 years.

      Is it really that bad? Not necessarily. With intelligent planning, Professor Thompson thinks the situation could be managed to minimise the worst effects on wildlife. While we may lose the snow bunting, other species, such as the black grouse, might be flung a lifeline. A reduction in numbers of those heavy grazers, red deer and hill sheep - something the National Park is able, in theory, to enforce - could see natural woodland regenerating on the slopes and sending tendrils of scrub up the burns almost as far as the plateau. And fewer deer and sheep on the tops should reduce the chances of delicate arctic vegetation becoming overwhelmed by grasses.

      Against that will be the danger of wildfires in the predicted warmer, drier summers. The Cairngorms is among potentially the most combustible parts of Britain. Even in a globally warmed climate, the land will take time to recover from a hot fire. And bare, scorched soil and peat will erode quickly in the predicted stormy weather ahead. Fire control will become a major commitment, as it is already on the southern heaths of England.

      Perhaps an optimistic scenario for the Cairngorms in a century's time would be as a kind of larger-scale, better-wooded North Pennines. Scots pine, birch and alpine willows will throng the slopes while the high tops will be grassier with patches of windblown heather, and perhaps the odd straggling, wind-bent bush. The hillsides will green earlier, and leaf-fall will be later. What there won't be is much snow. And without snow this will not be the Cairngorms many of us know and love.

      If things do not go so well, the Cairngorms circa 2100 could be a mess. Let's be pessimistic for a moment and imagine burnt-out, eroded plains channelled with peat hags, woodland regeneration largely halted by deer and sheep that have grazed the alpine flowers from all but the most inaccessible crags. There would be precious little bird song and not a lot to attract the visitor. The view from the Ptarmigan Igloo restaurant, high on the slopes of Cairngorm Mountain, would be profoundly depressing.

      The Cairngorms, then, has the potential to become the worst eco-catastrophe since the drainage of the English Fens, perhaps the worst since the Ice Age. It may happen slowly, so slowly that only those who return to watch the snow buntings in the spring or search for rare mosses by the alpine rills, will notice. Or it may happen suddenly, heralded by mass bankruptcy of the winter-holiday industry. All we know is that climate change has already started. Forget the theoretical models. Forget the Stern Report. Come to the Cairngorms and take a look. But don't forget the midge repellent.

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      Building for the future.



      There seems to be a small revolution going on amongst architect's, during the last week this has been shown by in key meetings both in the UK and US.

      More on Contraction and Convergence and the Royal Institute of British Architects.

      More on project 2030 and a recent landmark meeting in the US here.

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      Bioplastics. A potential carbon sink?


      Bioplastics, thats an interesting idea.

      I think I might have mentioned this idea before but now there is a blog called biooutput with more on this and many other ideas.

      I`m interested in what others think about biodegradable plastics from bio-feedstocks. My comment on the referenced post:

      I`m curious as to why we want bioplastics to be bio-degradable.

      It just seems to tempting to have non-biodegradable plastics from biological materials.

      This would effectively be a co2 pump out of the atmosphere and into landfill. I guess i`d rather see tonnes of solid and but inert waste in dumps or in curculation than in the atmosphere.
      I think that in the end we will have to develop significant industries that utilise atmospheric 
      co2 and fix it in a solid form. We seem to be moving past the stage where reductions in emissions
       will prevent rapid climatic destabilisation but I think that at some point govornments will really 
      start to act, if this does ever happen then bioplastics may play some role in bringing down co2 concentrations..



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      Friday, December 01, 2006

      UK Aviation Policy: Predict and Decide

      A new report on UK aviatition policy.

      Umm, ok, policy is a bit of a strong word for the British govornments involvement in the aviation sector.

      However the Environmental Change Institute is one of a relatively small number of organisations that i know of who do very clear policy work on climate change mitigation.

      The report is here if you care to take a look.



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