UK govornment response to the climate change bill consultation

My initial thoughts on the UK govornment response to the climate change bill consultation.


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Plane vs Train: UK to France

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Post-Consultation Climate Bill Released

The UK Climate Bill has been undergoing consultation (consultation questions, response summary). The govornments response, or delay, has just been released. No less than three parliamentary reports feed into the climate bill consultation before the legislation has even entered the law making process! These reports are by the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, the Environment Food and Rural Affairs Committee and a special Joint Committee with both members of the House of Lords and House of Commons.

The key questions is weather a vast consultation and 3 related reports are going to have an impact on govornment policy.


Significantly, the key concerns riased with the bill (strengthened target and broader scope) have been kicked into the long grass for further review...that not a flat refusal but neither is it the sort of response we need to deal with an urgent problem. The following quote is typical of the press response:

"Key among these is the possible inclusion, for the first time, of emissions from the aviation and shipping industry in the UK's targets, something for which environmental campaigners have been clamouring."

From The Guardian with my emphasis.

The reason that this has at least to be a possibility is the responses recieved. The Govornment recieved a large number of responses (16,919!) many of these where, however, identical campaign responses. The number of unique responses was smaller but still very large for a govornment consultation (1,197).

With regards the target the respnse was rather overwhelming:

"In terms of the Government setting a unilaterally long-term legal target for reducing CO2 emissions through domestic and international action by 60% by 2050 and a further interim legal target for 2020 of 26-32%, 95% of the respondents (1009 out of 1061) either agreed with the proposal in full (11%) or agreed subject to qualification (84%). The key qualifiers that prevented full agreement with the proposals were related to the need for higher targets for both 2020 and 2050."

Given this response Tony Juniper sums up me feeling on todays announcment quite well:

"We are pleased the Government is looking again at the overall target for cutting emissions, which it agrees is inadequate, and at whether emissions from shipping and aviation should be included in the Bill. However it's disappointing that we will have to wait two years for these obvious wrongs to be put right."

Finally, according to BusinessGreen, many busineses are largely behind the proposals but need a clear signal, Petter Madden of Forum for the Future clearly dosnet believe that this is yet visable:

Meanwhile, Peter Madden, chief executive of think tank Forum for the Future, warned that the government would now have to "put its money where its mouth is" if it is to have any chance of meeting its own emissions reduction targets.

"Businesses want a clear steer on where climate change policy is going and this bill will help with that," he said. "But where there are still legitimate questions, where the money is coming from? If you look at the recent spending review, £7bn to £8bn is going on climate change, while £50bn goes on security, £100bn on health and £100bn on education. That's not to say those other areas aren't important, just that the level of investment is not yet there to drive the transition to a low carbon economy."

Related:
The Document
All Govornment Documents Related to the Climate Bill
Climate Bill Q&A on Guardian Unlimited


More importantly:
We need a carbon treasury, a department with control of all climate related issues. I think this is more important than a climate bill, which exists only on paper. A real department with people working towards one goal: a zero carbon britain would be a more solid achivement. The EAC push for this in thier latest report.

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UK Needs New Climate Change Body: Environmental Audit Committee

The cross-party Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) does much good work. If you are interested in what the UK government are doing about climate change and how this could be improved then the EAC is a brilliant place to start.

In their latest report "The structure of Government and the challenge of climate change" (PDF) the committee accuse the government of having confused policies, and of failing to grasp the magnitude of the challenge.

This news comes via the BBC

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Biofuels 'crime against humanity'.

According to the BBC:

A United Nations expert has condemned the growing use of crops to produce biofuels as a replacement for petrol as a crime against humanity.

This issue is only now reaching the headlines, where it belongs. For an organisation that has been at the forefront of awareness raising on these matter check out Biofuelwatch.

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Wild Fires: Not caused by climate change!

Yesterday, i posted two short pieces about what i thought was the link between climate change and wildfires. One of these pieces featured a video in which the head of the US Fire Service, stated that the number of fires and there magnitude had increased drastically in the last 20 years. The other piece showed a summary of research into fires that appeared to indicate a stronger than expected link between climate change and wild fires.

But my failure to realise that these people are taking us for saps was corrected just half an hour ago thanks to NewsBusters. This organisation that fights to remove the liberal bias from the media has release a couple of statements attacking the climate-fire link. And yes, they are just like GhostBusters but rather than destroying threatening spirits from the afterlife they attempt to destroy threatening news stories than may attack industry vested interests.

The best headline being: "Scientists Disagree With Media Blaming Wildfires on Global Warming".But still the liberal media continue!

"Fires are burning hotter and bigger, becoming more damaging and dangerous to people and to property," U.S. Forest Service Chief Gail Kimbell said. "Each year the fire season comes earlier and lasts longer."

What does she know, she is only the Forest Service Chief! There is more of that sort of nonsense on Grist which has a extensive post on the speculative climate-fire link. Climate alarmists at Science Daily are also at it, contending that unless we change our ways and live in a cave (or a solar heated house with decent insulation) we will experience these fires at increasing frequency.

It's time for industry to take back the media, there was a time when catastrophes like this passed by without anyone connecting the dots or making scare statements such as:

"We're showing warming and earlier springs tying in with large forest fire frequencies. Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away. But it's not 50 to 100 years away -- it's happening now in forest ecosystems through fire."

It's all scare mongering!

[UPDATE] Some typical liberal scare mongerers!

Bill McKibben on Democracy Now

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Video: Climate Change and Forest Fires in the US

A short video about climate change and fires. It's compelling viewing.



Previous post on this topic, with references and websites on fires.

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Wild Fires: Connected to climate change?

Speaking about the vast wild fires occouring in California Ronal Neilson of Oregon State University says:

"This is exactly what we've been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change,"

According to Neilson (a member of the IPCC) the latest models show less inter-annual variability but more variability within decades.

"The latest models, Neilson said, suggest that parts of the United States may be experiencing longer-term precipitation patterns -- less year-to-year variability, but rather several wet years in a row followed by several that are drier than normal."

In California, many severe impacts from climate change are expected, including more deaths duting prologed heat waves, less snowpack in the siera nevada, and more wild fires.

With regards fires, a number of significant studies have been completed in recent years.

Recent research by climatologists, biologists, geographers, and fire ecologists has revealed that fires in western forests are more strongly linked to climate than was previously thought. But the specific linkages are as yet poorly understood. More practically, from a landmanagement perspective, it is not easy to sort through the scientific findings and pick out the most useful ones for planning and on-the-ground management.

The questions have become urgent with successive record-setting fire seasons in 2005 and 2006. A key study published in Science in August of 2006 used real-time climate records to make a strong link between rising temperatures and increasing wildfire in the northern Rocky Mountains. The researchers, led by A.L. (Tony) Westerling of the University of California at Merced, found that warming temperatures and earlier springs are triggering increased wildfire activity in forests in the northern Rockies.

[UPDATE] Wild fire& Climate Change video.




Related Reading:
Fire Science Digest (A review of recent science on fires and climate change in the US)

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Delhi law faculty

Today I had to give a presentation on the Global Climate |Campaign to the Law faculty of Delhi university something I had been dreading for an entire week. I absolutely loath public speaking,which does not make me so dissimilar from the average Joe public, apparently when quizzed people in the UK voted getting up and speaking in front of an audience as their number two fear after death.

Well in order to lighten things up, we had just been subjected to AL Gore's an inconvenient truth I cracked a joke about how my sister had fallen asleep whilst watching the movie, too many graphs she had professed. I remarked how relieved I was that none of the students had dozed off during the viewing of the film ..... dead silence you could have heard a pin drop and a stern and disapproving look from the head teache; not the best start to a lecture I thought to myself but I pressed on with my speech regardless, trying to look as non plussed as possible. To make matters worse, whilst I had been waiting in the common room the teacher in question had approached me and we had had an informal conversation about this and that. Nobody had thought to forewarn me that indeed she was the head teacher or that she would be introducing me for the debate. My guard down I revealed that I had dropped out of University because I thought it was dull (ouch!) and that I had subsequently studied fashion and art and was thinking of retiring from campaigning pretty soonish. In India a university degree is what the educated lot judge you on, one of the first things people ask you is what subject you have studied? ..... so dare I say she wasn't too impressed by my resume. Nevertheless she gave me a very "colorful"introduction and I went ahead with my preprepared speech trying to lend it as much gravitas as possible. My friends assure me it went well but of course they would wouldn't they ....bless them!

My talk was followed by a professor going into great depths about the Kyoto protocol, to be honest it was way too technical for me and I switched off. All in all the students were very enthusiastic about the campaign. A lot of them previously unfamiliar about climate change are now very keen to spread awareness, so all in all I think the evening was a success.

Rather embarrassingly for me the students ordered a chauffeur driven car to drive me home, they meant well but it was a huge four by four, as George Mombiot so rightly said ....... show me an environmentalist and I'll show you a hypocrite.

Tomorrow we are rolling out our awareness programme across 10 Delhi colleges luckily I needn't do any further presentations. Hallelujah ! Mind you after tonight's experience I feel pretty confident.... lets hope see if it lasts.

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Did Bush's "Mars Mission" scuttle NASA climate research

Cross-posted at DeSmogBlog.

When the now-Nobel Laureate Al Gore proposed the DSCOVR mission way back in 1998, he was widely jeered by Republicans for interfering in the scientific business of NASA.

“Gore-sat”, “Gore-cam”, and “the multi-million dollar screen saver” were all quips trotted out on the floor of the Senate and Congress in opposition to the mission.

DSCOVR was a victim of such partisan politics. Even though it is fully completed at a cost of $100 million, this unique spacecraft remains in a storage box in Maryland, rather than providing critical data on the progress of climate change.

NASA quietly cancelled DSCOVR last year, citing “competing priorities”. What could they be?

Perhaps the biggest was George Bush’s January 2004 edict that NASA put a human on the surface of Mars.

Bush made the high-profile pronouncement at NASA headquarters as their entire staff watched by video. In an apparent effort to emulate JFK, he intoned that “human thirst for knowledge ultimately cannot be satisfied by even the most vivid pictures, or the most detailed measurements. We need to see and examine and touch for ourselves.”

Besides the fact that it is difficult to “touch” a Martian rock when you are wearing a space suit, there are two obvious questions: Where will the money come from to bankroll this massive intervention in NASA’s science program?

And, is this really a worthwhile use of scarce NASA resources?

Alarmingly, the short-term money is coming directly at the expense of existing programs like the DSCOVR mission. Bush instructed NASA to pull $11 billion from their budget over five years to pay for his Mars brainstorm – almost 13% of their funding. The only additional money he promised was $1 billion over five years - everything else is the proverbial pound of flesh.

That is just for starters.

The White House did not put an actual dollar value on how much this boondoggle would eventually cost – always a bad sign. What we do know is that the task of transporting humans 12,000 times as far as the Moon, though the searing radiation of empty space, and bringing them back alive is going to be pricey.

Some have estimated that Bush’s Mars announcement may cost over $1 trillion, making it the most expensive speech in history. For those of us unaccustomed to such astronomical sums of taxpayer largess, that is one thousand-billion dollars. In hundred dollar bills, it would weigh eleven thousand tons.

Supporters of the mission have derided these figures; instead saying this effort would cost a mere $229 billion. For the record, that would still pay for what the US government is spending annually on climate change research for the next 127 years.

Bear in mind that this radical surgery on NASA’s direction was apparently completed without any scientific peer review whatsoever. It instead came directly from the brain of the perhaps the most unpopular president in US history – and a man who has repeatedly scorned the scientific consensus around climate change.

As for the scientific merit of putting a human on Mars, the scientific community is less than enthused. The American Physical Society stated plainly in 2004:

...shifting NASA priorities toward risky, expensive missions to the moon and Mars will mean neglecting the most promising space science efforts."

Many scientists instead feel that robotic probes are doing a good job of exploring Mars at a fraction of the cost, and are only going to get better with advancing technology. Besides the fact that they do not need food, water, air or sleep, robots also do not need to be brought 300 million miles back to Earth.

Lastly robots pose a much smaller risk of contaminating Mars with Earth-based life than astronauts. Because Mars may harbor indigenous life forms, all the probes sent to the Martian surface have to be carefully sterilized.

Humans on the other hand are repositories of billions of microorganisms in our digestive tract. If there was ever space suit failure on Mars, not only would the astronaut quickly perish, but the Red Planet would also be hopelessly contaminated with tenacious life from our world. In this way, sending humans to Mars may irrevocably damage our scientific understanding of the very place we are trying to explore.

The scientific community is very clear about the most urgent priority now facing the planet: climate change. Yet by diverting billions away from existing climate programs like DSCOVR, George Bush essentially decided that sending humans to Mars for an interplanetary photo-op is more important than tackling global warming.

How much more important?

Assuming that it would cost only $229 billion to put a boot print on Mars, that is still over eleven million times as much money as it would cost to launch and operate DSCOVR – a mission described by Dr. Robert Park of the University of Maryland as “the most important thing we could be doing in space right now”.

There is little doubt at this point that George Bush is a fool. History will only elaborate on that conclusion. Yet beyond Iraq, the ballooning national debt and the loss of American soft power, perhaps his most shameful legacy will be his intransigent opposition to climate science.

As for Gore, there is a certain sweet vindication of being on the right side of history.

Now all we have to do is spring his spacecraft from jail.

Here are the previous stories we've done in our ongoing DSCOVR investigative series:

Part 1: the background

Part 2: How politics conspired to kill DSCOVR

Part 3: Digging for answers from NASA

Part 4: FOIA, NASA, DSCOVR - my acronym hell

Part 5: Whitehouse stonewalls FOIA requests

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White House threatens Democrats with energy bill veto.

Bush administration shows just how serious it is about climate change.

Via Grist:

Dear Madam Speaker:

I write you to reiterate the Administration's commitment to work with Congress to produce balanced energy legislation that improves the Nation's energy and economic security and protects the environment.

The Administration submitted "Twenty in Ten" legislation to Congress earlier this year. Passage of that legislation would result in a 20 percent decrease in U.S. gasoline consumption by 2017 and a significant reduction in projected greenhouse gas emissions. While we prefer that this legislation be passed by Congress, the Administration is concurrently developing regulations to implement these goals. In this context, we offer a basic framework for an energy bill that would not compel the President's senior advisors to recommend a veto. Such a bill would:
Contain an ambitious alternative fuel standard comparable to that proposed by the President in his 2007 State of the Union.

Reform and strengthen the fuel economy standard for cars, and maintain separate, attribute-based standards for cars and light trucks, based on sound science, safety, and cost-benefit analysis.

• Not reduce but instead increase domestic energy production.
  
• Not raise taxes nor use the tax code to single out specific industries.
  
• Not contain provisions (such as the NOPEC provision) that encourage retaliation against American businesses abroad, discourage job-creating investment in the U.S. economy, and injure U.S. relations with other countries.
  
• Not impose price controls that could bring back long gas station lines reminiscent of the 1970s.
  
• Not expand the application of Davis-Bacon Act prevailing wage requirements.
  
• Not contain a mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standard.
  

Statements of Administration Policy describe additional concerns with the energy legislation. The Administration would like to work with Congress to resolve these concerns. Two years ago, the President signed into law energy legislation that was crafted in a bipartisan manner. We hope for the opportunity to work with you in a similar fashion to move America toward a stronger, cleaner energy future.

Sincerely,

Allan B. Hubbard
Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and
Director, National Economic Council

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Coal Power: Fossil Fueled or Just Fossil?

In my last post i mentioned what i consider to be one of the biggest developments in the US on climate policy this year. A coal fired power station had its application turned down, now that isnt an uncommmon thing of late, the important point was that this refusal was due to carbon dioxide (Co2). This is the first time that i have heard of anything being denies a permit due to co2 it's a bizarre state of affairs, hopefully we can see more roads, power plants, airports etc., dennied planning permission as they are inately carbon intensive activities. This is results on the grounds stuff, more positive in my eyes than traded carbon credits of uncertain voracity. Coal fired power plants are going out of vogue, fast.

There was an opinion survey taken in the US recently that illustrated the current mood of the nation very nicely. This is some optomistic reading! Go on, spoil yourself, give the latest climate science a mis and check out the changing political landscape.

[A] new poll shows that "75 percent of Americans -- including 65 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of Democrats and 76 percent of Independents -- would 'support a five-year moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the United States if there was stepped-up investment in clean, safe renewable energy -- such as wind and solar -- and improved home energy-efficiency standards.'"

The poll was full of other bad news for Big Carbon: Only 3 percent of Americans said they would advise their power company to look to coal as a new electricity source; the idea of turning coal into gas or a liquid with federal money got support from only 15 percent; more than 80 percent of Americans felt that fossil fuels were the energy technology of the past, and that it was time for a new, renewable industrial revolution -- including 84 percent of Republicans.

Via Huffington Post


Related Reading:
My previous posts on coal fired power plants.
Me lamenting the dumb people at TXU before it dumped its plan for coal power expansion.

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Coal power plant air permit denied because of CO2 emissions!

Great news, and a first, Kansas has become the first state in the USA to turn down a power plants permit application because of the damage caused by co2. In fact, i`m not aware of this having happened anywhere in the world before.

"I believe it would be irresponsible to ignore emerging information about the contribution of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to climate change and the potential harm to our environment and health if we do nothing," said Bremby.

"Denying the Sunflower air quality permit, combined with creating sound policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions can facilitate the development of clean and renewable energy to protect the health and environment of Kansans," said Bremby.

Story in Washington Post via Grist.

The impact of this is huge, not only in political terms.

The Kansas agency's decision caps a controversy over a proposal by Sunflower Electric Power, a rural electrical cooperative, to build a pair of big, 700-megawatt, coal-fired plants in Holcomb, a town in the western part of the state, at a cost of about $3.6 billion. One unit would have supplied power to parts of Kansas; the other, to be owned by another rural co-op, Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, would have provided electricity to fast-growing eastern Colorado.

Together the plants would have produced 11 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, nearly as much as a group of eight Northeastern states hope to save by 2020 through a mandatory cap-and-trade program they plan to impose. The attorneys general from those states had written a letter opposing the permit.

I wouldn't go inesting your cash in coal fired power stations, the hundereds that looked to be built a few years back seem to be dashing on the rocks, this is only the latest setback for coal and piece of good news for the world.

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Climate change and conflict: what are the connections?

Al gore won the nobel peace prize for his work on climate change. The obvious question would seem to be, how does reducing climate change reduce the chances of war. How does climate protection link with conflict prevention.

In this video the nobel peace prize judges connect the dots.

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Please DIgg This

It's a strange world.

Nobel peace prize for Al Gore in his fight against climate change one day, people thrown in jail for the same thing the next.

Please digg the post bellow by clicking here.

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The net they've cast is simply MASSIVE

To follow up on my previous marathon post about the NZ arrests under terror laws is the following, from somone who has been arrested and has a gagging order on them.

Its still all very murky, but what is clear is that the cops have used it as an excuse to harrass and raid as many different activist spaces & activist's houses as they can possibly think of. The net they've cast is simply MASSIVE.

I would like to thank that person for getting back to me, and i would like to wish them and all of the people caught in that massive net swift justice. 

Why is it that anti terror laws are always abused?

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Terrorist arrests or state repression in New Zealand.

I received an email about arrests that have occured all over New Zealand on October 15th.

The mainstream media (BBC, AP, TV3) have all reported this as a significant anti-terror plot being foiled.

However, indymedia shows a quite different picture with a number of social centers being raided. When i read about environmental actavists and native new zealenders being arrested by hundereds of arrmed police i tend to think first of state repression and latter about the possibility of the charges being substantiated. The corporate media, seem to have gone with the police statement, which paints a picture of an extreme group ready to start an armed struggle.

In fact, there was an interesting case of police infiltration of Maori actavists, dismissed as ludicris by the govornment only to be revealed as a reality.

There is also an anti-coal mining campaign that has been targeted, one of its members houses have been raided. Possibly the police are using some real armed Maori nationalists as an excuse to arrest some politically inconvenient campaigners...nothing is clear. It is also possible that the whole thing is being cooked up: it is true that one of the Maori guys arresed had worked as a security guard for high wealth businessmen, hence a need for arms...although not molitov cocktails that have been roumoured!

One of the social centers raided is called 'A Space Inside'. New on one of their conferences here.


The blogs of two people under supression orders:

Anarchia and Capitalism Bad:Tree Pretty

Some commentary by someone in NZ, who seems to (i have just realised) take the same view that is evolving in my mind. Namely, that something may have happened that involved an armed group, but that this has been used as a cover.

The most comprehensive coverage of this story, by a blogger, who i`m not to keen on, but who seems interested in the truth can be found here. On that bit about truth...i mean elements of truth, there is a lot about communists etc., and i`m not sure about that stuff, it largely incidental anyway. Ok, just found out that there is corroboration that Tame Iti has communist connections, also he once shot a gun at a NZ flag and went through a lengthy trial. He's a scary looking guy but his previous hardly suggests a terrorist. From Stuff.nz:

With his heavily tattooed face and a tendency toward the melodramatic, Tame Iti is the country's best known Maori rights campaigners.

One of the people arrested and chared with arms offences is Tame Iti.

Tame Iti has been THE face of maori radicalism for more than a decade.

Some details on the people arrested, and the organisations that they belong to can be found here. It is important to note that there where arrests all over NZ, and in many cases the connections between these individuals are not obvious. It is perhaps not unlikely that there where not connections of any substance, but you can dig for yourself on that one. The mainstream media story, is however, suspect to say the least. For one, i dont believe anyone would arm themselves at a social centre, you would have to be nuts! You would do that covertly, at home, or even better at a secret and non public location.

According to the Australian socialist party:

The raids were carried out under the Suppression of Terrorism Act and the Firearms Act. More than 300 police were involved in the operation. The early morning raids were carried out at several addresses including the ‘A Space Inside’ anarchist social centre in Auckland and an activist community centre in Wellington. The raids were the first use of the country’s Terrorism Suppression Act.

The raids came after months of work by anti-terror police, with evidence gathered from hundreds of hours of recordings from bugged conversations, video surveillance, and tapped mobile phone calls and text messages. Police Commissioner Howard Broad alleged that those arrested had used firearms and other weapons at military-style training camps.

One article, that i did find, and that is distrubing is an Anarchist arguing that violence can be justified. A very odd argument for an anarchist to make, and probably more likely to remain theory than to have been an explination for the police raids but i thought it was worth sharing. More local anarchists writings. In my view there politically inconvenient activities are far more likely to be relavent to there arrests than a radical tendency gone violent.

From indymedia:

Prominent Tino Rangatiratanga activist Tame Iti was among the first arrested at his home at 4am Monday morning. At 6am raids were carried out at A Space Inside anarchist social centre in Auckland [ Search Warrant ] and the 128 activist Community Centre in Wellington [ Video of police raid ]. In Tuhoe Country, the town of Ruatoki was blockaded by armed police for several hours, with no cars allowed in and many searched, including a school bus full of children.

It stinks to me. My only question is have they fabricated the whole thing, or have they just exploited something and used wide ranging laws to broaden there scope and go after people who are campaigning against coal mining, battery hens, trade agreements...and everything else.

[UPDATE]

The person above whose house was raided and who works for the Save Happy Valley campaign against coal is supporting a very productive campaign part of the time. And i`d put money on it that not destroying such work by joining in a 'Terror Plot' would be a high priority! The groups youtube account is here. Funny that he works against a state owned coal company and is being arrested...



[UPDATE 2] 21:59 BST

It's starting to look more likely that this is a politically motivated event, enabled by broad ranging terror laws...and quite likely based on a small number of people having fire arms without licence. I think talk of molotov cocktails etc has grown out of claims by the police that these where suspected...careful wording by the media hides the fact that this was only a suspicion, the fact that it was not claimed by the police in there offical statement gives it deniability. Also, there is some anti-terror legislation comming up soon. Not that that is related...

[UPDATE 3] 22:32 BST

There is now a protest planned to highlight what is calimed to be supression of protest. An odd thing for a terror cell to do!

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Go Green With Virgin Trains

A few days ago i mentioned that i had been emailed and asked to post an unbranded advert about travel by train. It was quite obviously Virgin trains style, and i have just confirmed this after finding an article on the controvercial campaign and the virgin trains website page where the campaign is based.

A few stills from the hillarious first viral:







The message is that unsustainable transport are changing the seasons and confusing our wildlife.

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Climate Business: Business Climate (Forethought Special Report Harvard Business Review)

A few points on Climate Change from the Harvard Business Review.

●Unknown consequences, effects on ecosystems, societies and businesses.
●Regulations will certainly place a price on carbon, this price is going to go up.
●Excess carbon is excess risk.
●Operational changes include making logistics more efficient and using vehicles that consume less fuel.
●Strategic measures include dematirialisation of services (book-->ebook).
●Localising the sourcing and consumption of goods.
●Businesses that are no longer in demand such as a putatively less desired white van service could find itself unexpectedly on the end of a radical shift in business models.
●Using flexibility of sourcing would give companies that aren't vertically integrated a distinct advantage.
●Demanding zero carbon for the same cost will put SME's at risk, leadership on energy should be a way to avoid this risk.
●Infrastructure destruction (physical impacts) and devaluing (regulatory impacts) are real risks.
●Staff retention and recruitment at risk for irresponsible companies.
●Reporting on GHG emissions is taken as guide of environmental management systems which tend to be good when overall management is good. Not reporting GHG emissions accurately or at all is not a good sign to investors.
●Not all business value shows on the bottom line. In fact 80% of Coke's value is not represented on the books. Sustainability is, like brand, a significant intangible.
●Pensions exposure can be at imprudent levels if fossil fuels are a significant part of the mix.
●The magnitude of the shift from a carbon based to a zero carbon economy is vast, the energy sector is one of the worlds largest. The combination of magnitude and rate means that every company requires a strategy. As with globalisation, the changes will not have by standers, there will be winners and losers.
●The issue is strategic, bold leadership on tough decisions is required, win-win situations are present but not the real important issue.
●Business as usual is risky, weather or not bold unilateral action seems comfortable, the situation is urgent and the companies head is on the line.
●Educating customers and business partners can help to maintain strong relationships and ensure market accessibility for scrutinised industries.

A risk worth hoping for.

There are a lot of reasons for action in the list above but one under rated risk is that of regulatory stringency. I do not believe that the following is being done by any companies, although it wouldn't surprise me if a few world leaders where starting to do the calculations.

• Work out a ghg concentration that is broadly defined as non-catastrophic (we have passed safe).
• Calculate how much carbon this equates to.
• Work out a global emissions reduction pathway.
• Work out the company or sector quota from this calculation.

This is a plan of hope for the planet, for businesses it is a just feasible risk! If people manage to persuade the governments to save the planet (it is no less) and do what the science is saying then companies will end up with drastic curtailments in carbon emissions quotas.

Absolute reductions of >60% globally over the next 45 years, but with a population 50% greater and a economy 4 times the size, the emissions per unit gdp may have to be >95% less!

How many businesses can cope with us saving ourselves? It makes the whole idea of fundamental business change look a lot more likely. And yes, the science isn't very...convenient, is it?

Related Materials

1. My vlogs on economics and climate change (1,2,3)
2. Posts and videos from Corporate Climate Response conference (CCR)
3.Previous Business and Economics posts.

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TED tribute to Al Gore

The TED talks have quite a reputation on the Internet. Technology, Entertainment & Design is an annual conference of "Inspired talks by the world's greatest thinkers and doers".

Entrepreneurs from the ceo's of major businesses to great musicians and leaders meet to share ideas worth sharing.

Last year gore spoke at ted (video), now after winning the Nobel peace prize, TED attendees are paying there own tributes (and here,here, here!) and talking about how gore's presentation influenced there work.

The following is quite typical, and perhaps goes some way to explaining why Gore is so viciously attacked by partisan hacks on the right...even if he isn't running he still represents Democratic ideals not current republican ones.

After experiencing Al at TED, vowed to change my Republican ways, support Hillary for President (unless, of course, Al agrees to run!), shift my business to sourcing sustainability innovations for Fortune 500 companies and admit publicly that I am now a “Recovering Republican” for the rest of my life… -- Mark A. Kaiser

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Al Gore and IPCC win Nobel Prize

AL Gore and the IPCC have jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize.

For those of you unsure about how drought, rising sea levels, crops shifts and mass migration threaten security, i wrote a previous article on the topic here.

Story via AFP

The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize was jointly awarded today to former US vice president Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Norwegian Nobel committee announced in Oslo.

It said they had been awarded the prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." Gore, a vice president to Bill Clinton and failed candidate for the White House in 2000, has reinvented himself as a champion of climate change with his 2006 Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth. The IPCC, a UN body comprised of about 3000 atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, ice specialists, economists and other experts, is the world's top scientific authority on global warming and its impact. The peace laureates will receive a gold medal, a diploma and 10 million Swedish kronor ($A1.7 million) to be shared between them.

The formal prize ceremony will be held in Oslo as tradition dictates on December 10, the anniversary of the death in 1896 of the prize's creator, Swedish industrialist and inventor of dynamite Alfred Nobel. The prizes were first awarded in 1901. Earlier this week, the prizes for medicine, physics and chemistry were announced. Yesterday, British writer Doris Lessing won the Nobel Literature Prize for five decades of epic novels that have covered feminism and politics, as well her youth in Africa. The economics prize will wrap up the 2007 Nobel season on Monday.

Hopefully this award will do something meaningful, namely putting climate change firmly on the agenda of US presidential candidates.

"It was a surprise," said Carola Traverso Saibante of the IPCC.

"We would have been happy even if [Gore] had received it alone because it is a recognition of the importance of this issue."

[UPDATE]

Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC is overwhelmed.

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Rajendra Pachauri, who chairs the U.N. panel on climate change that won the Nobel Peace Prize along with Al Gore, said on Friday he was overwhelmed by the news.

"I can't believe it, overwhelmed, stunned,"

Pachauri told reporters and co-workers after receiving the news on the phone at his office in New Delhi.

"I feel privileged sharing it with someone as distinguished as him," he added, referring to former U.S. Vice President Gore.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this year made the strongest ever link between mankind's activities and global warming -- gaining widespread publicity around the world.

"I expect this will bring the subject to the fore,"

he said.

Related Reading:
1.Margaret Beckett on Climate Change and Conflict
2. An overview of the possible links between climate change and war.

New Converage:
The story is now widely reported, from CNN, to the BBC, AP and Reuters.

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Music about climate change...

Spectral fires...go along to thiere myspace and check out 'Closing Your Eyes'.

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The Randy Buggers! Climate change and sexually confused wildlife...

I recieved an email asking me to highlight a video about unsustainable transport and climate change (unbranded but clearly by Virgin). In fact i get paid £10 to post this...but hopefully you will agree it was worth sharing without the sweetner!

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Where next for the climate camp?

Disucssion about the next climate camp is ongoing here...

http://climatecampwherenext.blogspot.com/

National meeting in oxford on Nov 3rd-4th.

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ADM, Bunge, Cargill: Rainforest Destroyers.

Action by Rainforest Action Network (RAN)...good work guys!

Rainforest Action Network (RAN) launched a campaign today to stop U.S. agribusiness expansion in the rainforests by draping a 50-foot banner on the historic Chicago Board of Trade building at the start of this morning's trading.

These companies where targeted for there hugely distructive role in Agrofuels (a.k.a biofuels) more information on this 'solution' to climate change here.

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Global public opinion solidifies on need for emissions reduction.

When the people lead the leaders will follow...so said somone famous...and a girl i met at a climate change meeting in London some time back. Well, it looks like its time for the global political 'followers' to get there running shoes on!

Large majorities around the world believe (report) that human activity causes global warming and that strong action must be taken, sooner rather than later, in developing as well as developed countries, according to a BBC World Service poll of 22,000 people in 21 countries.

An average of eight in ten (79%) say that "human activity, including industry and transportation, is a significant cause of climate change."

Nine out of ten say that action is necessary to address global warming. A substantial majority (65%) choose the strongest position, saying that "it is necessary to take major steps starting very soon."

The logic of devloped nations acting, and supporting developing nations was also widely grapsed by people from around the globe: despite media spin it the people are clear as to what a just agreement is, one that includes india and china but acknoledges the 'North's responsibility.

The poll shows majority support (73% on average) in all but two countries polled for an agreement in which developing countries would limit their emissions in return for financial assistance and technology from developed countries....

The survey is significant as it was a fairly large sample from a wide variety of nations. The urban bias may be significant.

A total of 22,182 citizens in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Indonesia, Italy, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, and the United States were interviewed face-to-face or by telephone between May 29 and July 26, 2007. Polling was conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan and its research partners in each country. In eight of the 21 countries, the sample was limited to major urban areas. The margin of error per country ranges from +/-2.4 to 3.5 percent.

However it's not just city folk who are worried about climate change, thanks to the nwfr for the survey results:

A new poll has some surprising findings about New Hampshire’s sportsmen.

77 percent of New Hampshire Sportsmen agree the U.S. should be a world leader in addressing global warming.

66 percent of New Hampshire Sportsmen agree global warming is an urgent problem requiring immediate action.

Will their opinions have an effect in New Hampshire’s primary? The Presidential election?

Is global warming the number one election issue?

Read more and let us know what YOU think!

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moved to greener pastures

I meant to upload a picture of the view from my new pad but this cheeky lad crept in, never mind he'll have to do ...just shut your eyes and imagine that he is actually a couple of trees.
Here I sit at my desk eagerly awaiting the guy from Airtel to come and sort me out with an Internet connection. A fair amount has happened since I last posted anything on the net. The whole of last week was dominated by the search for a flat to rent and it proved a mission barely possible. No one it seems is keen to rent for such a short space of time, two and a half months, can t really blame em as they have to pay half a month s rent to the property dealer and need to search for a new tenant all over again. But I was desperate and determined to move by the week end. My tiny hotel room in Parhaganj was doubling up as a make shift office with people coming and going and not even a chair or a table to work on. A number of events that followed in short succession were the final straw ...some poor soul clearly suffering from the last throws of TB spend the entire night coughing and convulsing just below my window and the following day some horrible little kid aimed a fire cracker at my head (he missed) I encountered a calf with three eyes and two faces and was unable to use my computer due to repetitive strain injury caused by bad posture due to lack of any adequate work space in my hotel room so I got on the phone and frantically called everyone I knew in Delhi and begged them to find me a home……
It is three days since I moved and I am over the moon, my view of shabby dilapidated and decaying buildings and in particular the one to my right, which contained the hideous generator has been replaced by the view of trees and sobriety. I am embarassed to say that I am living in a gated community.I did’ t even realise until after having moved, not sure why then again I lived seven years in Brixton and never noticed all the crack addicts or the dealing that was taking place. Sadly it seems like this type of set up is becoming more and more common place as the gap between the have s and the have not grows ever deeper. Every evening around 10 pm two men who obviously take themselves very seriously march up and down the streets with long sticks bashing them on the ground and blowing on whistles, not sure what that’s all about something to do with making their presence felt and flushing the thieves out (apparently this is an old British tradition left over from the days of the Raj), bloody weird if you ask me although it beats the old burglar alarm love.
As far as the campaign is going things are moving on steadily I’ve had plenty of advice from very good people, the problem being that most of it is conflicting so I have to rely on my intuition and better judgement and hope that I am making the right decisions. The politics here are hard for me to get my head round and it seems I have to exercise the utmost caution that the demo is not hijacked by some group and painted with a political brush by the media because then we would loose all credibility and the message would be lost and it will have have been a waste of time. Someone suggested to go for a really small rally with a very targeted crowd (hand picked respected and eminent people ) this may have more impact in the Indian media but not be so attractive to the powers that be and western media. My gut feeling is that we are trying to build a movement that grows year on year so we just have to take a risk and try and have a large demo, whilst exerting as much control over the media as possible. Just been invited to a karaoke night, the manager cannot comprehend that i am not roaring to go ........sure you understand.

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Debrief and Planning: The Scotland Neighbourhood of the Climate Camp

I just recieved this email on the scottish actavists list...hopefully i`ll see some of you there! Should be good :-)

---

Debrief and Planning: The Scotland Neighbourhood of the Climate Camp 

Saturday the 27th October, Glasgow, Scotland...

11am - 5/6/7pm? And festivities in the evening.

A time for us all who were at the camp this year or last / involved / feel
strongly about getting involved to meet and discuss the whole camp itself
and our neighbourhood, ready for individuals to feed back at the
nationwide meeting the following weekend.

Let's keep up the fantastic and powerful energy for action on climate
change in the ways we see as most effective.

There'll be space for as many people as want to come; pass this email on.
We do need to know for the hosts in glasgow how many though, so please
respond with estimates. There'll be space for people to stay on both the
friday and saturday nights.

Perhaps hosts can provide friday evening and saturday morning meals and we
can all bring vegan food to share on the saturday lunch and dinner?

See you all on the 27th!

Mel

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Dec 8th Planning Meeting: This Saturday 6th October (glasgow)

Dear Climate Campaigners,

In order to plan for Dec 8th a planning meeting is being held, anyone with an interest in climate change who wants to get involved and make this happen in scotland rather than taking the treck to london. Come along!

When: 4.30 - 7.30pm on Saturday, 6th October
Where:Flat 3/2, 50 Bank Street, Glasgow G12 8LZ

How to get there: From Kelvinbridge underground entrance on Great Western Road, follow Great Western Road over the river. After 200m, turn left at traffic lights into Bank St. Number 50 is 200m down the street on the right just before the Gibson Street traffic lights.

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?hloc=GB|g12%208lz

A few tasks we need to share out on Saturday:
- agreeing route and traffic management with council
- police liaison and stewards
- contacting SCCS partners and others groups (e.g. unions, schools, councils, green businesses)
- music and ents at beginning, during and end of march
- contacting media (press, radio, TV)
- poster/flyer production/distribution
- booking speakers
- sound equipment, lighting?
- audio/video record or event

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" Murdochchisation" a

I have this from an informed source......

Why Climate Change is not being reported in mainstream Indian media....

Difficult to give a short answer. It is not only climate change only, Indian
mainstream media are not reporting much on social issues in depth. It has
something to do with the dominant business model of media industry, which
has gone through 'Murdochisation' worldwide!

Indian media mentions climate change only when they need to report
freak/extreme weather events. But it is more of a sensational term that adds
some zing to a otherwise boring story of weather. Natural calamity does not
evoke any emotion here anymore. It has also something to do with poor
science reportage in Indian media. End of the day the fact remains that
Indian media bosses/management never put much money into scientific capacity
building. On the other hand, reporting the politics of climate change
suffers as it cannot be simplified in terms of dialectic [one bad guy and
one good guy!] and more and more media, all over the world are shying away
from reporting complex events. There is also another problem... Climate
change is not a simple event and mired with a complex web of background that
consists of politics of science and politics of global governance. It needs
a lot of human resource investment for any writer/publisher to report it in
the right context. If anything is being reported, that is only because of
free ticket journalists get either from UN or from a donor country which
anyway has a lot to sell in India!

And hence... I cannot give you any website that can be checked regularly for
reportage of climate change!

Any suggestions .....

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'Green Development?' only if the planning is right.

In the US, certification of buildings as energy efficient has been a huge success, particularly since LEED (Leadership in Energy Efficient Design) developed a standard that could be built
to and shown off.

Now that builders and architects are familiar with the requirements of LEED it has become a standard offering, particularly for high quality space: people are at last putting a premium on well designed comfortable and healthy space.

This trends is great news, and as it spreads further into the building sector as a whole, and internationally it looks set to make a significant impact on carbon emissions.

However, there is one further step to green building. Namely, accepting the fact that a green building miles from work is not truly green. Site has to be considered. Compact urban development is the most sustainable form of growth. Enter LEED New Development
(LEED-ND).

"Just as other LEED systems have improved building efficiency and energy performance, LEED-ND will reward efficient use of land and the building of complete and walkable communities,"

said John Norquist, President and CEO of the Congress for the New Urbanism.

"It is helping to reinforce a more complete understanding of sustainability that extends all the way from the individual building to the neighborhood and community."

Relevant Links:

• LEED-ND Report (describes the features for a sustainable building development).
  
• Comments on the draft report where taken: a summary response is available, this gives a superb short overview of the key tensions in the LEED-ND concept.
  
• USGBC: the home of LEED-ND
• Health and LEED-ND: Illustrates the health benefits of sustainable communities.

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Climate Change and Rice

Rice is the staple diet for 40% of the worlds population. Effects of climate change on rice are therefore of great significance.

As with all outcomes from climate models when we are looking at precipitation, temperature, and other factors, along with non-climatic factors the conclusions are not definitive or precise. However, the heterogeneity of the situation is significant of itself, and indeed is perhaps the most important aspect of the models. With more than 2-3 degrees warming all the trends are negative and the yields of many crops in many areas are declining, before that point there are a lot of areas making gains, and a lot loosing out. This is not a situation that farmers are going to easily adapt to and large scale migrations from one area to another will be significant without the yield necessarily decreasing.

Unfortuntely areas of Africa are amongst the hardest hit in Tyndall Centre projections:

• Between 0.9 and 1.4°C above 1990, poor farmers income declines globally (Hare 2003). This information may not show in model results for countries whose farmers have a range of incomes.
  
• 
  
• Even if there are no overall impacts on the yield of a crop within a country as a whole, this picture can mask a large amount of local variation. For example, in Venezuela where a global temperature rise of 1.4-1.7°C has been predicted to decrease maize yields by 10-15%, 15% decrease maize yield (Gitay . 2001); adaptation could offset 10% of this but it hides huge local variation (Jones &Thornton 2003.
  

The results are more mixed in China.


Relevant Documents:
Introduction to Rice and Climate Change (effects on rice and contribution by rice farming)
Climate Change and Impacts on Grain in China
Feeding Billions, A Grain at a Time (WSJ, Article)
Least Developed Countries and Climate Change.(IIED)
*Understanding the Regional Effects of Climate Change (Tyndall Centre)

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Tidal Power in the UK: Severn Barage a green option?

The Sustainable Development Comission have just published there report on uk tidal power potential. A debate that has been underway for some time...it looks like the Severn tidal  project could be under way soon. What are the priorities in such a development, and how can we minimise the ecological impact?

The UK's extensive tidal resources have the potential to supply at least 10% of our electricity. A Severn Barrage alone could supply almost 5%.

But how do we balance our need for large quantities of secure, low carbon electricity with the impact on biodiversity and local communities? Is a publicly led and financed project the only way to protect habitats and ensure long-term success?

Our latest report examines in-depth the propositon for a Severn Barrage and also the possible application of tidal range, tidal stream and tidal lagoon technologies at other sites around the UK.

The Report:
Turning the Tide, Tidal Power in the UK.
BBC News Article:
Tidal power plan is'wrong option'.
New Statesman Article:
Green Part on Severn Barrage.

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