Monday, June 23, 2008

James Hansen Calls for Trial of Oil Giant CEO's

Twenty years after his first testimony to congress about the dangers of climate change James Hansen is back. According to the New York times he is back with attitude. Or more seriously, he has long since run out of patience with obstructionist politicians and companies that are pushing us all down a destructive path that we need not be on. The timeline of climate change and its public presentation durning the last twenty years is here.

Hansen called for the trial of oil company CEO's who where involved in spreading misinformation about climate change in an attempt to stifle decisive action. An attempt that worked and that we are not paying the price for. Interestingly the NYT ignored this aspect of the story! We have to cross the channel and read the Telegraph or the Guardian to find out about Hansen's statements on the parralles between big oil and big tabacco and how they delt with science.

Hansen tells the Guardian:

When you are in that kind of position, as the CEO of one the primary players who have been putting out misinformation even via organisations that affect what gets into school textbooks, then I think that's a crime.

Against this backdrop it is rather sad to see Gordon Brown begging for more oil. New Labour don't seem to get it--The opportunities of greentech, and the need for action, that is.

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Sunday, June 22, 2008

Climate Change and Weather Patterns in North America

Given the current flooding in Iowa it's probably not a bad time to publish one of the most comprehensive reports yet on North American weather and the way that it is being effected by climate change. Well, that what the US Climate Science Program has done.


Related:

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

More last drops of ancient sunlight...

No matter how deep the hole we're in, you can always find willing shovellers. The road lobby is pressuring New Labour for an abandonment of any and all things green. With a perspective that only stretches as far as the next election they may well capitulate. Funny how industries without electoral clout are allowed to go to the wall of "economic conditions" but Middle England can be as unsustainable as it likes as long as it keeps the balance of power.

Meanwhile, now that the ice is clearing, Governments and MultiNationals are free to squabble over who should drill the shit out of the Arctic seabed and push us all that bit closer to the edge.

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Sunday, April 06, 2008

New Radio Ecoshock interviews hot off the recording decks.

Alex Smith over at Radio Ecoshock produces a continuous stream of good climate change related discussions and interviews; so head on over and check out the extensive archives.

The latest shows that Alex has just informed me about cover:
  1. The state of current climate science as compared to the latest IPCC 4AR. (MP3)
  2. The denial tactics used by the fossil fuel industry, a talk by Ross Gelbspan.(MP3)
  3. Tim Flannery talking about the sort of problem that climate change represents and some insperation for solutions from the past.(MP3)

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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Ken Caldeira:Why we need zero net emmissions of ghg's

Alex over at Radio Ecoshock passed this over to me, a facinating program by Ken Caledira of the Carnegie Institute speaking over at the amazing 3CR community radio out of Melbourne, Australia.

News climate science interview.

"And our simulations only went out about five hundred years, but at the end of five hundred years, you more or less have about as much warming as you had at the maximum warming after the CO2 emissions. And so this idea, that "Oh, this CO2 emission warms the Earth, and then in a century, or two centuries, it's mostly away" is really the wrong picture. More accurate is to say that each emission of CO2 produces a step, you know, increase in temperature that remains pretty much level for many centuries, and then decays away over many thousands of years."

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Saturday, January 26, 2008

The Shadow on American Democracy (By James Hansen)

James Hansen just sent this out on his email list:


I just did an interview with CNN (Miles O’Brien) re “censoring science”. The point I emphasized is that overreaching by the Executive Branch, trying to make government science
submit to political command and control, is a threat to our democracy, and, as a result, a threat to the planet. The scary part about this story is that seeds have been sown, and a playbook has been codified (although not written!), that will make the situation much worse unless the American public recognizes the problem and makes an issue of it. This is a bi-partisan problem – and neither party is trying to fix it. It is remarkable how wimpish Congress has become in accepting subjugation to the Executive Branch, contrary to designs and intents of our Founding Fathers.

Congressional testimony.
Do you know that before a government scientist testifies to Congress his/her testimony is typically reviewed and edited by the White House Office of Management and Budget? When I asked for a justification, I was told that a government scientist’s testimony “needs to be consistent with the President’s budget”. Huh? There have never been any budget numbers in my testimony or in the testimony of most scientists. And OMB’s editing of the scientific content is invariably designed to make the testimony fit better with the position of the political party in power (yes, it is a bi-partisan problem). Where is it stated or implied in the Constitution that the Executive Branch should have such authority? (Actually, does the Constitution not vest control of the purse strings to Congress?) Why does not Congress get incensed about this and fight back?



Offices of Propaganda.


The Public Affairs Offices (PAOs) of science agencies have become mouthpieces for the Administration in power. This, too, is a bi-partisan problem. Top people in the Headquarters Offices of Public Affairs can and often are thrown out in a heart-beat when an
election changes the party in control of the Executive Branch.


The Executive Branch has learned that the PAOs can be effective political instruments
and, with some success, they are attempting to turn them into Offices of Propaganda, masters of double-speak (“clean coal”, “clear skies”, “healthy forests”…) that would make Orwell envious. Again it is a bi-partisan problem, the control of PAOs being exercised by top political appointees who are replaced rapidly with a change of administration. It is these political appointees that are the problem – the career civil servants at the NASA Centers, e.g., are professionals of high integrity, as are most people at Headquarters.


One may wonder: why doesn’t the media object to this situation? I believe that I learned
the reason: it is encapsulated in the phrase “that’s hearsay!”. I heard that phrase over and over
again in 2004 after I stated publicly that NASA press releases were being spirited from NASA
HQ to the White House for either editing or deep-sixing, when they concerned “sensitive” topics
such as global warming. Even NPR did not seem to want to touch that story unless there were
multiple pieces of proof on paper.


The phrase “that’s hearsay” seems to make the media folks quake in their boots,
doubtless because of the threat of a lawsuit. That probably explains why the New York Times
stories about censorship of scientists at NASA that came out in early 2006 became a story about
a low-level 24-year-old, who then “resigned”. Reporters, New York Times included, knew that
the problem went much higher, but instead of focusing on the threat to democracy, it became
too-much an amusing story about a renegade trying to reverse scientific understanding of the
“big bang”, etc.

The actual story is made crystal clear in the new book “Censoring Science” by Mark Bowen (author of “On Thin Ice”, a gripping, albeit long, story about Lonnie Thompson’s quest for ice cores from alpine glaciers). Bowen gets insiders at HQ and elsewhere to provide extensive information, most of it “on the record”, about how PAO works to cover its tracks (“Gretchen, don’t e-mail me on this!” There are some heroines in this story, middle level people who refused to comply with orders from political appointees that they recognized as being inappropriate.) By the way, I gave Bowen some long interviews and documentation (and my
mug is on the book jacket), but I have no financial interest in the book.


The scary part of this story is that PAO political appointees are learning how to cover their tracks. The picture that Bowen presents is one in which PAO political appointees can communicate directly with the White House. One has to wonder, if the Administrator objected to the PAO political appointee activities, how long would it be before he was on the soup line? As the tracks are covered better and better, it is as if we have a shadow government organization controlling information that the public receives.


How to fix it?

There is an article “Freedom of Speech in Government Science” in the current
Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2008, pages 31-34, by David Resnik. Presumably
Resnik is well-intentioned, but I take vehement exception to one of his bottom lines. The article
sounds fine for the most part, but keep in mind the common technique of telling you ten things
that are true followed by slipping in the whopper, the very questionable point or conclusion
concerning the main point of interest. Here is Resnik’s whopper:

“…when a government scientist communicates with the media, the public (or even
journalists) may mistakenly assume that the scientist is speaking for the government, when he or she is expressing only a personal opinion. If the scientist expresses an opinion that goes against official policy, this can creates (sic) confusion in the public mind. To minimize confusion and to enable an administration to convey consist (sic) policy messages, it is appropriate to allow public relations officers to review a government scientist’s communications with the media.”
Perhaps I am taking his statement out of context, but he seems to mean review the
statement before it is made. This is where we need the Mercedes-driving lawyers
(http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_Lawlessness_070927.pdf) to help us. What Resnik is
saying, which PAO would latch onto in a heartbeat, consists of “prior restraint”, as he suggests
review prior to a testimony or statement being made, not correction after the fact by the
government. If prior approval for scientific opinions are required, a scientist does not have a
snowball’s chance in Hades of providing his unadulterated opinion on a “sensitive” subject.

This is true regardless of which party is in power. The most horrific experience that I
ever had with NASA PAO was in 2000 during a Democratic administration when I tried to get a
press release through on “Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario”,
which emphasized the importance of non-CO2 climate forcings. After umpteen iterations, I threw in the towel.

Resnik suggests that the best way to safeguard free speech in government science is for a
scientific organization, such as the American Association for the Advancement for Science
(AAAS), to designate a committee or group to focus on these issues. That may do some good,
but by itself it will do little.

The presumption of democracy is that the public is informed, honestly informed.
Government scientists work for the tax payer and should be allowed to report their research
results without political interference. Elected officials can use scientific information as they see
fit – they must consider all factors in making policies, not just scientific data. But they should
not be allowed to torque the scientific data, or choose what information is allowed to be
presented and what information is deep-sixed. Such filtering, which is a recipe for bad decisions
and poor management, has never been as intense as in the past several years, in my opinion.

The main problems could be fixed as follows:
  • Public Affairs Offices should be staffed by career professionals protected by civil service rules, not headed by political appointees,
  • the practice of the White House OMB reviewing scientific testimony should be dropped.

These changes would be simple to make, they would allow the public to be better
informed, the government would have a more complete picture for making decisions, the tax
payers would get their money’s worth. So why doesn’t it happen? Because, when a new
Administration comes in they say “Hey, now WE can control the Offices of Propaganda (even
though they consider them offices of their enlightened truth) and make OUR administration look good!

What is needed is a bi-partisan agreement that these changes would be in the interest of
the nation. But it is just not going to happen unless the public gets involved. Politicians do not
give up instruments of political power AFTER an election that they have won, unless they made
an unambiguous promise before the election. We should be asking the candidates for President
“will you make these two specific changes, to take the politics out of scientific reporting?” And
then we must check to see that the changes are made when a new administration takes over.

Well, I failed to expound on the relation between the threat to our democracy and the threat to
our planet, but I am running out of gas and need to work on a scientific paper. The relation is
discussed in (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/worldwatch_nov2006.pdf), and better in Bowen’s “Censoring Science” (Dutton, 2008). Would you believe that the current head of NASA PAO had a senior position in the Southern Company, the second largest holding company of coalburning utilities in the United States? Naw, just kidding. Or am I? Read the book.

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Climate Change 2007: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)


'IPCC 4AR Summary for Policy Makers' (PDF) finally released.

Sorry for being a few days late with this one. If, however, you haven't read the entire IPCC report in three volumes then this is where the delay stops. Your excuses are at an end, this summary document is what government ministers and heads of state are expected to read. So if you want to know the basis on which decisions are made at the forthcomming Bali climate talks then this is the place to start. It's only 23 pages so get to it!

The document is introduced and discussed in this webcast (via IPCC.ch)

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Thursday, October 25, 2007

Wild Fires: Not caused by climate change!

Yesterday, i posted two short pieces about what i thought was the link between climate change and wildfires. One of these pieces featured a video in which the head of the US Fire Service, stated that the number of fires and there magnitude had increased drastically in the last 20 years. The other piece showed a summary of research into fires that appeared to indicate a stronger than expected link between climate change and wild fires.

But my failure to realise that these people are taking us for saps was corrected just half an hour ago thanks to NewsBusters. This organisation that fights to remove the liberal bias from the media has release a couple of statements attacking the climate-fire link. And yes, they are just like GhostBusters but rather than destroying threatening spirits from the afterlife they attempt to destroy threatening news stories than may attack industry vested interests.

The best headline being: "Scientists Disagree With Media Blaming Wildfires on Global Warming".But still the liberal media continue!
"Fires are burning hotter and bigger, becoming more damaging and dangerous to people and to property," U.S. Forest Service Chief Gail Kimbell said. "Each year the fire season comes earlier and lasts longer."
What does she know, she is only the Forest Service Chief! There is more of that sort of nonsense on Grist which has a extensive post on the speculative climate-fire link. Climate alarmists at Science Daily are also at it, contending that unless we change our ways and live in a cave (or a solar heated house with decent insulation) we will experience these fires at increasing frequency.

It's time for industry to take back the media, there was a time when catastrophes like this passed by without anyone connecting the dots or making scare statements such as:

"We're showing warming and earlier springs tying in with large forest fire frequencies. Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away. But it's not 50 to 100 years away -- it's happening now in forest ecosystems through fire."
It's all scare mongering!

[UPDATE] Some typical liberal scare mongerers!

Bill McKibben on Democracy Now



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Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Video: Climate Change and Forest Fires in the US

A short video about climate change and fires. It's compelling viewing.



Previous post on this topic, with references and websites on fires.

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Wild Fires: Connected to climate change?

Speaking about the vast wild fires occouring in California Ronal Neilson of Oregon State University says:
"This is exactly what we've been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change,"
According to Neilson (a member of the IPCC) the latest models show less inter-annual variability but more variability within decades.
"The latest models, Neilson said, suggest that parts of the United States may be experiencing longer-term precipitation patterns -- less year-to-year variability, but rather several wet years in a row followed by several that are drier than normal."
In California, many severe impacts from climate change are expected, including more deaths duting prologed heat waves, less snowpack in the siera nevada, and more wild fires.

With regards fires, a number of significant studies have been completed in recent years.

Recent research by climatologists, biologists, geographers, and fire ecologists has revealed that fires in western forests are more strongly linked to climate than was previously thought. But the specific linkages are as yet poorly understood. More practically, from a landmanagement perspective, it is not easy to sort through the scientific findings and pick out the most useful ones for planning and on-the-ground management.

The questions have become urgent with successive record-setting fire seasons in 2005 and 2006. A key study published in Science in August of 2006 used real-time climate records to make a strong link between rising temperatures and increasing wildfire in the northern Rocky Mountains. The researchers, led by A.L. (Tony) Westerling of the University of California at Merced, found that warming temperatures and earlier springs are triggering increased wildfire activity in forests in the northern Rockies.
[UPDATE] Wild fire& Climate Change video.




Related Reading:
Fire Science Digest (A review of recent science on fires and climate change in the US)

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Monday, October 01, 2007

Climate Change and Rice



Rice is the staple diet for 40% of the worlds population. Effects of climate change on rice are therefore of great significance.

As with all outcomes from climate models when we are looking at precipitation, temperature, and other factors, along with non-climatic factors the conclusions are not definitive or precise. However, the heterogeneity of the situation is significant of itself, and indeed is perhaps the most important aspect of the models. With more than 2-3 degrees warming all the trends are negative and the yields of many crops in many areas are declining, before that point there are a lot of areas making gains, and a lot loosing out. This is not a situation that farmers are going to easily adapt to and large scale migrations from one area to another will be significant without the yield necessarily decreasing.

Unfortuntely areas of Africa are amongst the hardest hit in Tyndall Centre projections:

  • Between 0.9 and 1.4°C above 1990, poor farmers income declines globally (Hare 2003). This information may not show in model results for countries whose farmers have a range of incomes.

  • Even if there are no overall impacts on the yield of a crop within a country as a whole, this picture can mask a large amount of local variation. For example, in Venezuela where a global temperature rise of 1.4-1.7°C has been predicted to decrease maize yields by 10-15%, 15% decrease maize yield (Gitay . 2001); adaptation could offset 10% of this but it hides huge local variation (Jones &Thornton 2003.
The results are more mixed in China.


Relevant Documents:
Introduction to Rice and Climate Change (effects on rice and contribution by rice farming)
Climate Change and Impacts on Grain in China
Feeding Billions, A Grain at a Time (WSJ, Article)
Least Developed Countries and Climate Change.(IIED)
*Understanding the Regional Effects of Climate Change (Tyndall Centre)

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Monday, September 24, 2007

Arctic ice melt shatters records...and my nerves.

Recently i've been focusing less on climate impacts and more on solutions/politics here.

There are a lot of climate impacts, and they tend to be depressing and quite scary...depressed and scared people arent really likely to act to improve the situation: that isn't a motivational combination.

However, one recent story really caught my attention...reports are going around that this years arctic ice melt has been the fastest and largest yet, breaking records set just a couple of years ago. Roughly an extra million sqaure miles of ice have melted as compared to the average minimum.

All of which means that there is ohh...some slight measure of urgency in making a rapid international agreement starting at the special UN summit currently underway.

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Monday, September 10, 2007

Audio of the Week: Former British Antarctic Survey Head On Climate Change



Former head of the British Antarctic Survey and new head of the British Science Museum, Prof. Chris Rapley CBE (bio), speaks about climate change and the likelyhood of real consequence being more severe than IPCC predictions. Personally i always took the IPCC as a conservative baseline but this interview is certainly(MP3) worrying stuff and well worth a listen.


Via Radio Ecoshock

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Sunday, July 22, 2007

UK Floods and Weird Weather

Looking for some logic to the strange weather we have had in the UK (warmest May and wettest June on record) I found this from the MetOffice.


Record-breaking June rainfall figures

Provisional statistics from the Met Office have today shown that June has been the wettest since records began in 1914.

The UK-wide average figure of 134.5 mm has beaten the previous highest June total of 121.2 mm in 1980. Records for England and Northern Ireland have also been broken.

The month saw some extremely high daily rainfall totals, with 103.1 mm falling in the 24-hour period ending at 10 p.m. on 25 June in Fylingdales, North Yorkshire. At this stage, it is not possible to say whether intense rainfall events are caused by climate change.

However, there is an expectation of heavier extreme rainfall events in most places as climate warms and the atmosphere becomes moister.

Chief Scientist at the Met Office, John Mitchell said: "In the UK, extreme rainfall is likely to increase in winter, but in summer the predictions are unclear. Improved modelling and understanding in the future will help us to reduce this uncertainty for the UK."

Despite the large amounts of rain across many parts of the country, the average UK temperature has been above the long-term average. June 2007 had a mean temperature of 13.7 °C, while the long-term average is 12.6 °C.

The higher-than-normal mean UK temperature for June follows a trend that has become a regular feature over recent months. The last time mean UK temperatures were below average was in March 2006.

The Met Office works with government, the public and the private sector to forecast and advice on the possible consequences and risks of climate change. With the 'normal' baselines changing, we all need to seek advice to make informed planning decisions and begin to put in place adaptation measures to meet the challenges posed by climate change.

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Saturday, July 21, 2007

1kg of beef results in more CO2 emissions than going for a three-hour drive while leaving all the lights on at home

The Guardian via Carbonara.

Producing 1kg of beef results in more CO2 emissions than going for a three-hour drive while leaving all the lights on at home, scientists said today.

A team led by Akifumi Ogino at the National Institute of Livestock and Grassland Science in Tsukuba, Japan, trawled through data on aspects of beef production including calf raising, animal management and the effects of producing and transporting feed.

They are calling for an overhaul of the beef industry, after their audit revealed producing the meat caused substantial amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollutants.


It's worth noting that beef consistently scores badly in terms of it's climate change impact, other meet's often do far better. A general rule that i am starting to use is 'avoid beef, moderate the rest of your dietary meat intake'.

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Confronting Climate Change (Carnegie Council Podcast)

I love the blurb about this podcast, the speaker is described as an optimist, this is justified by the fact that he thinks we can avoid climate change becoming a '